Posted by: Jon Henke on Wednesday, November 09, 2005 It's probably too early to draw grand conclusions about yesterday's elections—and, in fact, they may be indicative of nothing but local issues—but here's a election-by-election take on what happened yesterday:
GOVERNOR: Democrat Tim Kaine (52%) beats Republican Jerry Kilgore (46%) by a somewhat larger margin than expected: 4-6 months ago, Kilgore was expected to win, but Kaine ran a strong campaign as an effective centrist—even a conservative Democrat—and Kilgore blew a few months whining impotently about Kaine's religious beliefs. Virginia's current governor is a very popular centrist Democrat who models himself as a fiscal conservative, so Viriginia has decided they like the status quo, replacing a moderate Democrat with a moderate Democrat. The Big Winner here may be Mark Warner, who gains some political capital by showing he has coattails in Virginia and may be able to carry this state for the Democrats as a Presidential/Vice Presidential candidate. LT GOVERNOR: Republican Bill Bolling defeats Democrat Leslie Byrnes. ATTORNEY GENERAL: Republican Bob McDonnell (50%) appears to have defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds (50%) very, very narrowly. According to this election website, the vote total is McDonnell (940,815) over Deeds (936,152). CONCLUSION: In every major race, Democrats did much better than expected. It's hard to tell whether this is the result of voter dissatisfaction with the national Republican Party, an energized Democratic base or the fact that, in general, Virginia Democrats ran to the center. It's very likely that it's a combination of the three. The lesson for Democrats is probably that the way to beat a bloated, struggling Republican Party in thrall to the religious right is to run to the middle.
GOVERNOR: Democratic Senator Jon Corzine (53%) wins over Republican Doug Forrester (44%). CONCLUSION: It's hard to read anything into this race. A Democrat replaced a Democrat in a generally Democratic state. Quelle surprise!
BALLOT MEASURES: All 8 ballot measures lost, including the 4 pushed heavily by Governor Schwarzenegger. CONCLUSION: After the election results came in, "Schwarzenegger pledged 'to find common ground' with his Democratic adversaries in Sacramento", which is code for "I got nothing. Your turn." Governor Schwarzenegger looks like a lame duck from here out—expect more Democrat-friendly compromises. If Arnold wants to run for re-election, he'll have to emphasize his centrist tendencies.
NEW YORK CITY: Incumbent Republican Michael Bloomberg wins easily. DETROIT: Incumbent Democrat Kwame Kilpatrick wins narrowly. CLEVELAND: Democrat Frank Jackson unseated incumbent Democrat Jane Campbell. CINCINNATI: Democrat Mark Mallory deafeated Democrat David Pepper. SAN DIEGO: Republican Jerry Sanders defeated Democrat Donna Frye. BOSTON: Incumbent Mayor Thomas Menino deafeated Maura Hennigan. ATLANTA: Incumbent Mayor Shirley Franklin easily won re-election.
TEXAS: "Texas voters Tuesday overwhelming approved a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage". MAINE: Voters easily voted to uphold a law "which bans discrimination based on sexual orientation". SAN FRANCISCO: "Voters approved ballot measures to ban handguns in San Francisco". (maybe I'm missing something, but it's hard to see how you can reconcile the 2nd and 14th amendments to make that Constitutional)
CONCLUSION: I'm really not sure that any larger implications can be seen in this election cycle. Most elections seemed to follow precedent, and most positions were retained by the incumbent, or at least by the incumbent party. Democrats did a bit better than expected in Virginia, and Arnold Schwarzenegger suffered a surprisingly thorough drubbing, but then Virginia Democrats ran as quasi-Conservatives and California is a very liberal state. Perhaps the lesson in all this is that Democrats have to run to the Middle in Red States, and Republicans have to run to the Middle in Blue states. If that's the lesson, though, it's not exactly a blinding, new insight. MORE: Chad Dotson at Commonwealth Conservative is a go-to guy for commentary on the Virginia elections; he's also got a roundup of Viriginia blogger reaction. Another Virginian, Rick Sincere adds pics to the mix. Meanwhile, Glenn Reynolds writes that he'll leave "analysis to people...who actually know things", but I've got no such compunction. I think Reynolds is right about this, though: it seems as if the GOP voters didn't turn out for Republicans the way they did in 2004, and I think that can be laid at the feet of the White House and the Republican leadership.That may loom heavy for the '06 elections. UPDATE [McQ]: Or it may not. John McIntyre at RealClear Politics makes some comparisons which he thinks demonstrates no particular foreshadowing of doom for the Republicans in '06. The MSM is trying to spin yesterday's election as a disaster for President Bush. But a simple exercise of just checking the election results from four years ago shows this to be partisan spin.I'm not sure I agree yet, but it is a good counter-point to the spin portending doom and gloom in '06 for Republicans. UPDATE: Look to local elections for unmitigated good news... All eight members up for re-election to the Pennsylvania school board that had been sued for introducing the teaching of intelligent design as an alternative to evolution in biology class were swept out of office yesterday by a slate of challengers who campaigned against the intelligent design policy.This, despite the fact that the general public overwhelmingly—Republican or Democrat—believes in either creationism or Intelligent Design. And yet, when a school board suggests that schools teach ID, they're shellacked by the voters. I'd suggest this mean that voters are perfectly comfortable distinguishing between their scientific and religious beliefs. |
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