Posted by: McQ on Friday, December 21, 2007 In a word "interesting". As the first "real" primary, I think it is the more interesting of the two early races. And per the USA TODAY/Gallup poll, it's breaking down like this: In the poll, Clinton and Obama are tied at 32%-32%, with Edwards at 18%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.Now, per Dale's advice about the accuracy of Intrade as we get close to particular primaries, I've been following it rather closely. And it isn't showing a "tie" at all in the Dem race. In fact, it shows Hillary Clinton building a fair lead again: Clinton: 56 Obama: 48 Edwards: 1.9 Remember, those are trade prices. And currently Clinton's price shows that there's quite a bit of confidence she's going to pull it out whereas, despite what the poll says about Edwards, few if any think Edwards has even an outside shot. And the Republicans? Well Intrade has much more confidence in a Romney win than a McCain win, and Huckabee doesn't even show up on the radar screen: Romney: 56 McCain: 29.9 Huckabee: 4.8 Of course, Huckabee's numbers could climb (bandwagon effect) if he wins Iowa, where, per Intrade, he is the prohibitive favorite at 66.6 (what a great number for a former baptist preacher, eh?). Romney trails with 24.1 and Thompson 3rd at 5.5. Giuliani? Well not looking so good in IA and NH with respective Intrade numbers of .8 and 3.8. Iowa for the Dems shows Obama as the favorite with a good lead over Clinton (50 to 39.4) with Edwards holding down 3rd with 24. |
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