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Focus on the Senate
Posted by: McQ on Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The present Senate:

49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents

The present situation:

54 Democrats, 40 Republicans, 2 Independents, 4 seats are a toss up.

A note about the two "independents". They mostly caucus with the Democrats with the notable exception of Joe Lieberman when it comes to Iraq (and other national security issues).

So even if all 4 of the toss up seats went to the Republicans, Democrats would effectively have 56 seats to the Republicans 44.

However it is not at all clear that the 4 seats in the toss up category are going to finally go the Republican way even though the 4 Republicans are incumbents.

According to CQ, all have the possibility of going to the Dems:
• In Oregon, where Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is seeking a third term, polls by Survey USA and Research 2000 showed Democrat Jeff Merkley, the state House Speaker, with leads of 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively, while the most recent Rasmussen organization’s poll showed the race tied.

• In the high-profile Minnesota race, first-term Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, a well-known entertainer, were in statistical ties in polls taken by Quinnipiac University, Research 2000 and Survey USA, with both candidates hovering around the 40 percent mark. The only constant being the 18 percent pulled in each poll by third-party candidate Dean Barkley.

• In North Carolina, first-term Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole trailed Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan by 4 percentage points in a Research 2000 poll.

• In Mississippi’s Senate special election, appointed Republican Sen. Roger Wicker led Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove by a statistical insignificant 1-point margin in a Research 2000 poll.
Now, at this point, no one expects all 4 to go Democratic. But I think you have to expect, statistically, that at least one, perhaps two will.

All of that depends, I believe, on turnout for Obama. And I've commented on Obama's GOTV effort below. While 56 is a formidable advantage, adding two more to take it to 58 will make it almost impossible - given the record of some "Republican" Senators - for the minority to filibuster anything.
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Previous Comments to this Post 

My greatest wish is for Joe Biden to lose his Senate reelection bid here in Delaware. Ain’t gonna happen, but I can still dream. He has so little regard for the voters in DE that he’s not even bothering to campaign for Senate; he refuses to debate his republican opponent (Christine O’Donnell). Just for taking us for granted he should lose his seat. But alas he will win reelection (the idiot voters here would elect him even if he were dead) and the new democrat governor (the republican doesn’t stand a chance) will appoint another dem to fill Biden’s seat. Oh, well. Maybe at least the Phillies will win the Series.
Written By: Unger Woo
URL: http://
"Research 2000 poll" = Daily Kos poll. Caveat Emptor.

That said, I’d bet 3 of those races go Democrat.
Written By: A.S.
URL: http://
That said, I’d bet 3 of those races go Democrat.
Well that’s the point - it really doesn’t matter whose poll it is, they’re all pretty much showing the same thing.
Written By: McQ
This is a scary time in our nations history when outright liberalism might be allowed full control over all three branches of our government!! If this occurs you will see an escallation of curruption beyond comprehension and these liberals will make sure they legislate all checks and balances out of their way to allow the country to slide down the slippery slope of socialism. May God Help Us All. If you want to remain free perhaps its time to seek sanctuary in another country!!!
Written By: B@nd!T0
URL: http://
May God Help Us All. If you want to remain free perhaps its time to seek sanctuary in another country!!!
Hmmm, I heard similar stuff from the left when the GOP won big in 2000 and especially 2004.

But then we got to vote in 2006.

And if the Democrats win really big in 2008, the Republicans will likely have a very good year in 2010, that’s the way politics works. The sky is not falling, politics swings right-left-right-left, and every once inawhile, as in 1980 and perhaps now in 2008, there is a major swing that reshapes the boundaries for awhile. But there are never any eternal winners or permanent majorities.
Written By: Scott Erb

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