Faith in Federal Government plunges
It has never been particularly high (except in 2003 apparently), but in the last few years, it has taken the same route as the economy. The Pew Research Center has published a survey has taken a look at the favorability ratings for local state and the Federal government, and the Fed is in Congress and Nancy Pelosi territory when it comes to that.
Governments in general have seen their favorability rating slip over the past decade, but none like the federal government. And the “hope and change” administration has apparently managed to drive the unfavorable view of government even deeper than that mean old Bush guy.
I bring this survey up for a reason. Many things factor into a vote. Or a decision not to vote for that matter. Getting an idea of how voters may feel about such institutions as government is important in trying to figure out how the vote has a whole will go.
The perception they have – favorable of unfavorable – of government is one of those good indicators.
Look, for instance, at the point on the chart around 2008. Of course we all know what happened then. But the unfavorability number then wasn’t as bad as it is now.
It climbed after that mainly on the “hope and change” smoke and mirrors show. But then reality set in. Bailouts, trillion dollar debts for as far as the eye could see, failed stimulus, a huge increase in unemployment, passage of a hugely unpopular, expensive and possibly unconstitutional health care act along with cratering housing prices, an economy that continues to bounce along the bottom and an administration that frankly seems clueless.
Reaction? Favorability takes a dive to a new low – 33%.
Now there are those who will tell you that this is no big deal. Well it is. What this helps do is frame the debate for one side and tailor it to a receptive electorate. Big government, intrusive government, expensive government has failed. And there’s a three year record for everyone to see. The federal government has tried, for the most part, to do everything the blue model of government says it should do. It hasn’t worked.
Or said another way, this survey points to an issue that should be popular for one side of the political spectrum and require the other side to defend their model, if they can.
So why is this a problem for the current administration? Because of where the most significant changes have taken place:
Since Barack Obama’s first year in office, public assessments of the federal government have dropped nine-points, with most of the change among Democrats and independents. In 2009, 61% of Democrats and 35% of independents had favorable opinions of the federal government in Washington, those figures stand at 51% and 27%, respectively, today. Republicans’ views, already low in 2009, have shown less change.
Everyone and their brother knows that the Republicans are going to have a less favorable view of a Democratic administration (just as the numbers were reversed when Bush was in office). No big deal. The significance comes in the eroding numbers among Democrats and, of course, independents.
In fact, the number for independents is below the average for favorability on the whole. Indies are in the 73% range of being dissatisfied with the federal government. And Democrats are in danger of seeing the number slip under 50% if they’re not careful.
What do these numbers impact?
What they’ll possibly impact, on the one hand, is enthusiasm. Especially among Democrats. The 10 point change between July of 2009 and today among Democrats sends a distressing signal to the administration. They’re losing even their stalwarts. And you have to figure that if there are 10% who’ve grown dissatisfied with the federal government as run by their own party, there are probably a good percentage leaning toward that as well.
Independents already had a pretty low opinion of the federal government in July 2009 at 35%. This administration has done nothing to win independents over and in fact, independents now have a lower opinion of this version of the federal government (27%) than they had under Bush (35%). In the case of Independents, the lower number may motivate more independents to go to the polls and vote for the opposition.
That’s hardly what the administration wants.
So file this survey away as an important data point and indicator of the mood of the electorate. At this date, It doesn’t point to good times for the administration regardless of what candidate polls say at this stage of the race (they’re worthless). This sort of information, along with direction of the country polls, etc. give one the mood of the country. As you can see, the mood – when it comes to the federal government – isn’t good. It reminds one of the mood prior to the “wave elections” we’ve seen in the recent past.
How that will translate in November is still hard to say – but it will become clearer as we get closer. In the meantime, take all the spin of who will win with a grain of salt. There’s deep seated underlying dissatisfaction with Washington DC and those who run it.
That could mean big trouble for incumbents – especially the one in the White House.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
ICYMI: Democrats losing the voter fraud argument
At least in the eyes of the American people if this Rasmussen poll is accurate:
Despite his insistence that voter fraud is not a serious problem, Attorney General Eric Holder was embarrassed last week when a video surfaced of someone illegally obtaining a ballot to vote under Holder’s name in his home precinct in Washington, D.C. Most voters consider voter fraud a problem in America today and continue to overwhelmingly support laws requiring people to show photo identification before being allowed to vote.
Why do they support the requirement so overwhelmingly?
Simple common sense. The arguments we’ve been putting forward for years – a photo ID is absolutely necessary to do many of today’s daily chores, so producing one to vote is no big deal. And, in fact, it helps maintain the integrity of a system that badly needs such a shot in the arm.
Or said another way, most Americans don’t buy the argument that voter fraud isn’t a problem. Additionally most Americans certainly don’t see one of the solutions – voter ID—to be a problem either.
We’re not talking about a slim majority here:
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters rate voter fraud at least a somewhat serious problem in the United States today, and just 24% disagree. This includes 35% who consider it a Very Serious problem and seven percent (7%) who view it as Not At All Serious. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Seventy percent (70%) of Likely U.S. Voters believe voters should be required to show photo identification such as a driver’s license before being allowed to cast their ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 22% oppose this kind of requirement. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
So here’s a loser for the left. It is something that actually hurts the left because most people don’t accept the argument that obtaining acceptable ID is either discriminatory or difficult. They also know, from personal experience, how often they are asked to produce such ID while navigating everyday life.
Consequently, when the left tries those arguments, it falls on deaf ears. They are instead seen as a group with something to hide, a group with an ulterior motive for wanting the requirement struck down. And that motive isn’t seen as a positive one either.
So? So let the left continue to push the issue and continue to alienate those who see the requirement as a common sense safeguard against fraud. It certainly isn’t going to help Democrats convince voters they’re for voter integrity, that’s for sure.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Obama’s attack on SCOTUS not a political “winner” per poll
Obama’s attack on the Supreme Court concerning his signature legislation, ObamaCare, and the possibility of it being over turned can’t help but make one wonder how such an attack would be received by the public at large.
Well, if this Rasmussen poll is to be believed, not very well:
While President Obama cautioned the U.S. Supreme Court this past week about overturning his national health care law, just 15% of Likely U.S. Voters think the high court puts too many limitations on what the federal government can do.
In fact, a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that twice as many–30%– believe the Supreme Court does not limit the government enough. Forty percent (40%) say the balance is about right, while 15% more are undecided.
So in the great scheme of things, given this poll is accurate, more Americans than not (in fact about twice as many) are concerned the Supreme Court doesn’t limit the government enough. Hmmm …. no leverage there for the administration.
In fact, 70% of Americans find that SCOTUS is about right or needs to limit government even more.
Interesting.
It points to an argument the administration can start, but is unlikely to win. In fact, it would appear that most Americans, according to this survey, see the SCOTUS as a vital governor on the engine of run-away government. And they surely don’t agree that the court has acted out of the main for the most part.
That, of course, doesn’t bode well for a campaign to smear the court, does it?
Let’s see if this administration realizes that and backs off or, as it has many times in the past, blindly and arrogantly charges on.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Poll: Voters not particularly high on Obama’s performance in 3 key areas
As I’ve noted any number of times, there are polls which mean nothing (such as polls this far out comparing an incumbent president and GOP nominees) and there are those what present indicators or trends that give one insight into the prevailing mood of voters or the like.
The Hill produced one of the latter this past week. Obviously a snapshot of the prevailing mood right now, it is not a poll with which the Obama campaign should be happy.
On Obamacare:
The poll indicated that 49 percent of likely voters said they expect a court ruling that is unfavorable to the Affordable Care Act, while just 29 percent think it will be upheld and 22 percent aren’t sure.
Economy:
On economic issues, 62 percent of voters say Obama’s policies will increase the debt, while 25 percent think they will cut it, and by a 48-percent-to-38-percent margin, voters believe those policies will increase joblessness rather than put people back to work.
Energy:
On energy, 58 percent say Obama’s policies will result in gasoline prices increasing, while just 20 percent expect them to cut prices — and by a 46-percent-to-36-percent margin, voters believe they will cause the United States to become even more dependent on foreign oil.
Now as far as I’m concerned, those are the three issues that are likely to (or should) dominate the election once a GOP nominee is decided on. If they’re not, and the GOP allows the Democrats to frame the campaign on issues other than those, they stand a good chance of losing.
Regardless of the outcome in the Supreme Court, ObamaCare remains very unpopular with a majority of the population. The economy is one of those issues that is personal. Despite media hype, voters judge the state of the economy on a personal level. The “official unemployment number” can be made to look rosy, but in fact real people who are still unemployed or underemployed know who they are. They are the real number and they’re not going to be happy with the state of the economy.
Finally, the energy tap-dance that the administration is doing is obviously failing. Obama is failing miserably passing off the blame about gas prices if 58% are saying his “policies” are the problem. True or not, perception is the rule. Oh, and, frankly, it’s true. See for yourself.
When you have consistent polls that say a vast majority of voters are unhappy with a president’s signature piece of legislation, that’s a place you focus your campaign. When you have two important issues – the economy and energy – where significant majorities are down on the incumbent for his policies, you hammer that unmercifully.
This poll is an indicator of the issues the GOP should build its campaign around. These points should be pushed relentlessly.
Porn, contraception and other wedge issues should be avoided. Sorry, but they’re net losers and true distractions. They let the left frame the discussion and trust me, that’s where they’re going to take it every time.
Oh, as an aside, if you’re interested in what a useless poll looks like, check this one out. Justices appointed to lifetime positions are hardly worried about “popularity”. In fact, that’s the primary reason for such appointments. While the poll may indicate public dissatisfaction with some rulings, it may also simply indicate a partisan divide. But for the most part, it is irrelevant.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Gallup again points out for all the Republicans out there — It’s the economy, stupid!
I’m not sure how much more plainly it has to be said. Here, let Gallup try:
More than 9 in 10 U.S. registered voters say the economy is extremely (45%) or very important (47%) to their vote in this year’s presidential election. Unemployment, the federal budget deficit, and the 2010 healthcare law also rank near the top of the list of nine issues tested in a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll. Voters rate social issues such as abortion and gay marriage as the least important.
If making the point graphically will help, here it is:
The top 5 or 6 are your winners. Any questions?
And in case that didn’t quite sink in and you still want to argue about it, try this one:
Are we getting through yet? Is it starting to get clearer? Any talk about anything other than the top 5 or 6 topics, and preferably the top 3 or 4, is a distraction, waste of time and will see voters, especially those in the middle column critical to any electoral win, tune you out.
It is the economy, stupid. That’s what the people are concerned with, what they’re most likely to base their vote on and what they expect you to be talking about.
Take a hint.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Issues that unite: Opposing “tax the rich” and class warfare
Despite what Democrats thing and despite the fact that they’ve doubled down on this theme, the “tax the rich” meme of their class warfare agenda isn’t at all as popular as they think it is, as the Hill reports:
Three-quarters of likely voters believe the nation’s top earners should pay lower, not higher, tax rates, according to a new poll for The Hill.
The big majority opted for a lower tax bill when asked to choose specific rates; precisely 75 percent said the right level for top earners was 30 percent or below.
The current rate for top earners is 35 percent. Only 4 percent thought it was appropriate to take 40 percent, which is approximately the level that President Obama is seeking from January 2013 onward.
So this is another issue in which the GOP would be able to find majority support.
And on corporate taxes, much the same thing:
The Hill Poll also found that 73 percent of likely voters believe corporations should pay a lower rate than the current 35 percent, as both the White House and Republicans push plans to lower rates.
The Hill tires to argue that the results of their poll is counter to what other recent polls have found. But in reality, it isn’t:
The new data seem to run counter to several polls that have found support for raising taxes on high-income earners. In an Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday, 65 percent said they favored President Obama’s “Buffett Rule” that millionaires should pay at least 30 percent of their income. And a Pew poll conducted in June found 66 percent of adults favored raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 as a way to tackle the deficit.
Again, note the percentage number in the AP-GfK poll – 30 percent or the percentage they’re now paying. When you ask voters to put a
percentage to the nebulous “the rich should pay more” meme, you find the majority of voters consider 30% more than fair. The fact that many may not know that the so-called “rich” are paying that amount is means the GOP needs to do a little educating and informing, but it is clear that voters find the 30% threshold to be more than enough taxation.
So while the Democrats continue to try to push 40% as “fair”, most voters don’t see it as that. The majority of votes seem to think that fairness in the amount of taxes paid is found at the 30% level. That’s information to exploit and use against the class warfare Democrats.
Additionally the AP-Gfk polls shows majority support for spending cuts over tax increases. That’s a winner for the GOP.
What the GOP can’t do is allow the Democrats to take the issue and frame it as Timothy Geithner tired to do the other day:
“…the only way to achieve fiscal sustainability is through unacceptably deep cuts in benefits for middle class seniors, or unacceptably deep cuts in national security."
That’s patent nonsense, but the usual scare tactics employed when anyone talks about significant cuts in spending. Always threaten the security of a large body of voters with false choices. There are literally thousands of different ways to work toward sustainability before either of those programs would have to be touched (and yes, those programs should be “touched” as well).
So what do Republicans have to do?
“It might be that people are underestimating how much the rich pay now,” said Bruce Bartlett, a former Reagan adviser and Treasury official under President George H.W. Bush.
The data could indicate a challenge to Obama’s push to increase taxes on the wealthy. The White House’s fiscal 2013 budget request included a number of tax hikes targeting the nation’s wealthiest. In addition to the “Buffett Rule,” it calls for raising taxes on family income above $250,000 in 2013, and returning the top individual rate to 39.6 percent.
But as Obama continues his push to allow the higher-end Bush tax cuts to expire at the end of the year, the poll suggests it might be difficult to persuade voters to buy in when it comes to hard numbers.
Start talking hard numbers and percentages. Point out that our problem doesn’t revolve around the “rich” not paying enough in taxes, but instead with our politicians spending money we don’t have.
The sustainability problem has never been a problem of revenue. It has always been a problem of overspending. And it is that which has to stop.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Is the “enthusiasm gap” now on the side of Democrats?
A new PPP poll suggests that’s the case. As I’ve mentioned any number of times, this is one of the polls I keep tabs on because the enthusiasm of the voting public for a particular candidate or party are key to Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts and election wins.
PPP’s latest:
The paltry turnout in the Republican Presidential contests over the last week reflects what we’ve seen in our recent national polling: Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.
Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were ‘very excited’ about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats ‘very excited’ and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.
And:
Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters ‘very excited’ about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.
-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they’re ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots.
Given the GOP primary process, I have to say I’m not at all surprised by these numbers. It’s has been bloody and divisive. But, as PPP admits, this could change once a nominee is settled upon. And, one should remember, President Obama has been mostly out of the pre-election limelight. Once the focus of the GOP has settled on him, you may see enthusiasm on the right rise again. But suffice it to say, the enthusiasm gap we see right now has more to do with the current crop of GOP candidates than ousting Barack Obama from the presidency.
Another poll, WND/Wenzel Poll, suggests that 20% of self-identified Republicans are leaning toward Obama this year. I’m not so sure about that. And if true, does that indicate actual support for Obama or disgust with the GOP process (and candidates). I’d guess the latter. At this point, though, Intrade has Obama’s re-election chances at 60%.
Before the Obama campaign begins to celebrate, there’s something they need to consider this from Gallup:
This historical pattern suggests that Obama would need to see his job approval rating climb to 50% to be in a comfortable position for re-election. History shows that by March of the election year, all winning presidents in the modern era, including George W. Bush, had job approval ratings above 50%, and all losing presidents had job approval ratings below 50%. This suggests that where Obama stands by next month may be an important indicator of his ultimate re-election chances.
In fact, at this point in his presidency he has an approval rating below that of both George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, both of whom lost their re-election bids.
Independents aren’t mentioned among all this polling and it is their enthusiasm and turn out that will likely determine November’s outcome. But still … if you can get your own base enthused, how are you going to convince indies to turn out for you?
That’s what I want to try to look into a little at CPAC. We’ll see what I find.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Stunning
I’m stunned every now and then when I see a story like this. By the way this isn’t an indictment of Germany, necessarily, its not the only country in which you’ll find such knowledge gaps. Japan has hidden its atrocities during WWII as well. In fact, most countries would prefer not to discuss such behavior.
But it sure makes it hard to say “Never again” and have it mean anything if part of the population doesn’t know what it refers too.
One in five young Germans has no idea that Auschwitz was a Nazi death camp, a poll released Wednesday showed, two days ahead of Holocaust memorial day.
Although 90 percent of those asked did know it was a concentration camp, the poll for Thursday’s edition of Stern news magazine revealed that Auschwitz meant nothing to 21 percent of 18-29 year olds.
And nearly a third of the 1,002 people questioned last Thursday and Friday for the poll were unaware that Auschwitz was in today’s Poland.
Maybe it’s not significant that 21% didn’t recognize a name that is so identified with concentration camps that it could be a synonym. Perhaps it is good enough that 90% of the total knew it was a concentration camp. Or does it signal that the shame and the knowledge of the shame brought to Germany by the Nazis is beginning to fade (of course my guess is if you asked the question of the same demographic here in the US, the percentage to which the name would mean nothing would probably be higher)?
Or, does it perhaps point to a demographic in which a portion is so self-absorbed that history like that represented by Auschwitz simply doesn’t register?
I wonder at times, as I watch the WWII era dim as veterans die off, whether things like D-Day and its import or Pearl Harbor will even get a mention in a few years.
But back to the poll. If ever there is something every German school kid should know about it is the Nazi era. If ever there was a subject to which they should be exposed, to include all of the atrocities by that regime, it is the subject of Germany and Nazism.
I can’t help but believe, and I don’t know it for sure, that the subject gets taught but it isn’t something that is lingered over by schools. And I wonder how sanitized it has become now days.
The fact that a fifth of the young demographic said the name “Auschwitz” had no meaning for them has thinking it is both short and sanitized when presented.
Wonder if they knew the name “Dachau” (10 mines northwest of Munich).
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO
Romney wins in New Hampshire
As expected, and as polls indicated would happen, Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary. And he did more than win, he pretty much cruised to victory. Second place went to Ron Paul, which, actually, shouldn’t be particularly surprising. New Hampshire is a libertarian leaning state. He should have done well there. Jon Huntsman took third, which is mildly surprising, after the showing Rick Santorum made in Iowa.
And yes, the big loser was Santorum who was pretty much rejected as a candidate by New Hampshire primary voters, negating his Iowa showing. Apparently his time as Republican flavor of the week may be passing. As for Newt and Rick Perry … well as Ron Paul said, “drop out.” Gingrich and Santorum polled 9% while Perry got an anemic 1% in the Granite State.
All of the bottom 3 candidates think that the upcoming South Carolina primary will resuscitate their campaigns feeling their messages will get a better reception there than in New Hampshire. Frankly, I think Perry is fooling himself. He hasn’t done well in either Iowa or New Hampshire and he’s not polling well in South Carolina.
PPP has it broken down as Romney 30, Santorum 19, Gingrich 23, Paul 9, Perry 5, Huntsman 4. Rasmussen has it Romney 27, Santorum 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 11, Perry 5, Huntsman 2 .
If those numbers hold, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, it may be Paul who is looking for the exit poll after SC. I doubt he’ll do well in Florida. Huntsman is done and probably the next to leave, and if Perry shows as dismally as the polls show, he’ll be out before Florida’s January 31 primary.
Santorum is looking for a boost for him from what MSNBC calls the “socially conservative and evangelical Christian voters in the Palmetto State”. If he’s able to pull Rasmussen’s numbers then he’ll stay for a while. If he ends up second with a PPP spread, he’s pretty much done whether he’ll admit it or not. He’s not going to pull good numbers in Florida.
So, like it or not, Romney appears headed toward the nomination at this time. Watch for Gingrich to remain to the bitter end and be much more destructive to the GOP’s chances than the Obama campaign ever will be. Obama, after all, has to run on his poor record which means the campaign has to be careful about what issues they raise and what they don’t want raised. Gingrich is the Attila the Hun of politics, with no such limits and no qualms about pulling out all the stops even if his effort is doomed. As I said once before, it was only a matter of time until “bad Newt” showed up, and he’s here.
Meanwhile in New Hampshire, Barack Obama only managed 82% of the total Democratic vote. 10% went to write-ins and 1% of the total vote went to Vermin Supreme, the guy who claims to be a satirist and wears a rubber boot as headgear.
~McQ
Twitter: @McQandO



