Free Markets, Free People

# Coal powered, er electric cars, not as efficient as EPA claims?

Why I’d be shocked, shocked I tell you if that was the case.

The tease:

The Green Machine is now exposing how the US Government can choose to create data that disobey the laws of thermodynamics so that the worthless government policy of favoring plug in vehicles over gas or diesel powered vehicles can be supported by the public. Yes the US EPA chooses to make 34.4% equal to 100%.

Hmmm … I’m hooked, let’s see why:

The EPA allows plug in vehicle makers to claim an equivalent miles per gallon (MPG) based on the electricity powering the cars motors being 100% efficient. This implies the electric power is generated at the power station with 100% efficiency, is transmitted and distributed through thousands of miles of lines without any loss, is converted from AC to DC without any loss, and the charge discharge efficiency of the batteries on the vehicle is also 100%. Of course the second law of thermodynamics tells us all of these claims are poppycock and that losses of real energy will occur in each step of the supply chain of getting power to the wheels of a vehicle powered with an electric motor.

So the 118 mpg equivalent that the EPA allows the Honda Fit is nonsense?  Tell me it ain’t so!

Well it is simple the US EPA uses a conversion factor of 33.7 kilowatt hours per gallon of gasoline to calculate the equivalent MPG of an electric vehicle.

Dr. Chu Chu of the Department of Entropy is instructing the EPA on thermodynamics in coming up with the 33.7 kwh per gallon. On a heating value of the fuel 33.7 kwh equals 114,984 BTUS which is indeed the lower heating value of gasoline. The fit needs 286 watt hours to travel a mile and the Green Machine agrees with this for the 2 cycle US EPA test with no heating, cooling or fast acceleration. Using this amount of energy per mile and the 33.7 kwh “contained” in a gallon of gas, the EPA calculates the Fit gets 118 MPG equivalent.

All of these calculations are in fact flawed as the generation of electricity, the transmission and distribution of electricity, the conversion of the AC electricity into DC electricity, and the charging and discharging of the vehicle batteries all have energy losses associated with these activities. The average efficiency of power generation is perhaps 42.5%, the transmission and distribution efficiency is perhaps 90%, the AC to DC conversion and the battery charge discharge efficiency is about 90%. Multiplying all these efficiencies one can calculate that the overall efficiency is 34.4% to get electric power from fuels at the power station into stored electrons within the plug in vehicle’s batteries.

On this basis the 118 MPG equivalent is 40.6 MPG actual for the Honda Fit which is not much of an improvement to the gasoline version of this vehicle that has an EPA rating of 35 MPG combined for city and highway driving.

Uh, that’s quite a little downgrade in performance, isn’t it?  Nothing like being 190% off, EPA.

However, I am glad to see the administration has finally taken the politics out of science and has “real” science again serving the public’s best interest.

~McQ

# The new fossil fuel reality

Myth: The US has only 2% of the world’s proven reserves.

Reality:

From Canada to Colombia to Brazil, oil and gas production in the Western Hemisphere is booming, with the United States emerging less dependent on supplies from an unstable Middle East. Central to the new energy equation is the United States itself, which has ramped up production and is now churning out 1.7 million more barrels of oil and liquid fuel per day than in 2005.

“There are new players and drivers in the world,” said Ruben Etcheverry, chief executive of Gas and Oil of Neuquen, a state-owned energy firm that is positioning itself to develop oil and gas fields here in Patagonia. “There is a new geopolitical shift, and those countries that never provided oil and gas can now do so. For the United States, there is a glimmer of the possibility of self-sufficiency.”

Or, as the article from which those two paragraphs are taken is entitled, “Center of gravity in oil world shifts to America”.

And, given recent finds, there’s more than a “glimmer of the possibility of self-sufficiency for the United States” there is a real possibility for self-sufficiency if a coherent energy policy is put together that exploits the reserves we have.

Currently the US imports 45% of its petroleum needs.  29% of all imports comes from Canada, 8% from Mexico.  Saudi Arabia supplies 14% Nigeria 10% and Venezuela 11%, with lesser suppliers picking up the rest.

Canada’s supplies of crude oil are going to continue to rise, from a current base of 4.3 million barrels a day to 6.6 million a day in 2035.  But the US is projected to see a big an increase as well.  From the current 10 million barrels of oil a day to 12.8 million in 2035.

But that’s the case only if we tap into it or are allowed to tap into it, much being found under land controlled by the federal government who has been anything but friendly to the idea here recently.

Production has risen strikingly fast in places such as the tar sands of Alberta, Canada, and the “tight” rock formations of North Dakota and Texas — basins with resources so hard to refine or reach that they were not considered economically viable until recently

Technology has made the recovery of these resources economically viable and they promise a abundant energy future.

Then, of course, there’s natural gas, something the US is blessed with in huge quantities as well.  It is a distinct possibility that the use of natural gas will increase markedly over the next few decades as it is applied to more and more uses traditionally the realm of other energy sources.  Part of that may come among auto and truck fleets.  If so, then it is more than a “glimmer of a possibility of self-sufficiency” we’re beginning to see.

It is a real possibility.

But only if we use it.  And, only if the government and radical environmentalists get out of the way.

One of those two problems can be helped this November.

Forward.

~McQ

# About the myth that the US only has 2% of the world’s proven oil reserves

With the following quote, which Anu K. Mittal, the GAO’s director of natural resources and environment provided in written testimony to Congress, forever kills the meme that we have only 2% of the world’s proven oil reserves:

“USGS estimates that the Green River Formation contains about 3 trillion barrels of oil, and about half of this may be recoverable, depending on available technology and economic conditions,” Mittal testified.

“The Rand Corporation, a nonprofit research organization, estimates that 30 to 60 percent of the oil shale in the Green River Formation can be recovered,” Mittal told the subcommittee. “At the midpoint of this estimate, almost half of the 3 trillion barrels of oil would be recoverable. This is an amount about equal to the entire world’s proven oil reserves.”

Of course the 2% myth has been useful to deny the viability of “drill, baby, drill”.  President Obama has used it repeatedly (and I have no doubt he will continue to do so because he seems to come from the school that thinks if they repeat something that is untrue enough times, well, it becomes true, or something).  The entire argument has centered around the premise, given the 2% figure, that even if we were to drill everything, we’d still be dependent on foreign oil.  And so, the logic then goes, since that is “true” then it would seem we should instead concentrate on alternate energies, especially clean and renewable energies, to displace fossil fuel use, decrease our foreign dependence and replace oil with those alternatives (even if they’re more costly).

Naturally, this works perfectly into a further claim that we’ll also save the planet from warming, increase net job growth by creating domestic green jobs and everyone will live happily ever after.

None of it is true.  Myth after myth has been shattered.  Global warming, despite James Hansen’s insistence, is simply not happening the way he and his alarmists claimed.  He continues to beat the same drum he was beating years ago as if nothing has disputed his initial theories.  Just last week he doubled down with a NY Times op/ed piece that barely yielded a yawn.

Should we be pursuing alternate and so-called “clean” energy sources?  Of course we should.  And we will as necessity and markets guide entrepreneurs.  But this myth that we must be a net oil importer forever and ever and can’t find ways to fully secure our own supply (i.e. not have to import oil from unfriendly or potentially unfriendly countries or be subject to their whims) is a myth.

That is, unless we don’t exploit this resource.  And remember, the estimate Mittal is talking about covers one area in the US.  We’re not talking off-shore, where most of the off-shore area  also holds vast amounts of oil but remains off-limits.  We’re talking right here on dry land.

The Green River formation is near where the state borders of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming come together.  The unfortunate aspect of that is most of the land is owned by the Federal government.  And, under this administration, anyone who has been following the energy policy of the administration knows that’s bad news for Americans.

“The federal government is in a unique position to influence the development of oil shale because nearly three-quarters of the oil shale within the Green River Formation lies beneath federal lands managed by the Department of the Interior’s (Interior) Bureau of Land Management (BLM),” she testified.

Again, with this administration, most know what that means.  If history is a guide, little if anything will be done to take advantage of this petroleum windfall by Mr. “All-Of-The-Above”.

Look at the Bakken oil fields and their impact in this down economy for an example of what Green River could mean in real terms.  Here’s blurb published today from a Billings, MT newspaper:

Thousands of workers chasing quick riches by flooding into the Bakken oil field have helped jump-start home sales in Billings.

And the wave is starting to make Billings houses harder to find — and more expensive.

Well-site geologist Joe Hallgren works under contract for SM Energy of Billings. He and his family live in Williston, N.D., the oil boom’s epicenter. But, they’re building a house in Billings and when it’s finished in July they’ll move here and Hallgren will commute to the oil patch.

“I’ve seen a few boom-bust cycles. This one is crazy,” he said. “We got to the point where, for our family, Billings is just going to be better for us.”

Last week, Bozeman resident Doug Pezoldt, who surveys land for local engineering firm Sanderson Stewart, and his wife started moving into their custom-built Billings home.

“Really, in one year’s time, the boom in the Bakken has increased the volume of work and we just need more people in Billings to support that,” Pezoldt said. “My wife and I just feel like Billings is where we want to make our home long term.”

That is the reality of Bakken and the potential of Green River in a very down economy.

Question: Do you think the administration will bother to take advantage of it?

Forward.

~McQ

# “All-of-the-above” energy policy doesn’t mean just adding “clean coal” to campaign energy web page

This guy is so obvious it amazes even me at times.

He loses 41% of the Democratic vote in the West Virginia primary to a Texas jailbird and suddenly he’s all for “clean coal.”  Does he really, honestly believe that now West Virginia will rally to his cause because he put “clean coal” on his campaign web site where it has been conspicuously absent prior to the primary?  This is “smartest guy in the room” stuff?

After coming under fire for its consistent hostility to the coal industry, the Obama campaign quietly adjusted its energy policy website to include “clean coal” among the president’s energy initiatives.

The energy policy page of BarackObama.com now includes a section for “clean coal,” claiming the stimulus package “invested substantially in carbon capture and sequestration research.”

But until recently, that page made no mention of coal. Its Google cache shows a section for “energy efficiency” where “clean coal” now appears.

The change comes mere days after Obama lost 41% of the vote in the Democratic primary in West Virginia – a state heavily reliant on the coal industry – to a convicted felon and current federal inmate.

The chairman of the WV Democratic Party blamed Obama’s poor showing on his stance on coal energy. “A lot of folks here have real frustration with this administration’s stance on coal and energy,” said state Democratic chairman Larry Puccio. “They are frustrated and they are upset, and they wanted to send Obama a message.”

Of course everyone who has followed how Obama operates knows very well he’ll say anything.  It is what he does (or doesn’t do) that matters.  Just like being “for” gay marriage.  That doesn’t mean he’ll do anything to make it happen. It is about how he calculates being “for” something will benefit him politically.  The same holds true for “clean coal”.

Should he win re-election, “clean coal” will be removed as quietly as it was inserted onto the campaign web page.

Forward.

~McQ

# Imagine a president who puts the needs of the country before a political agenda

Jeffery Folks at American Thinker begins his article with:

Imagine a president who gets behind drilling, welcomes the cutting-edge technology of companies such as ExxonMobil, and offers generous 15-year tax breaks to ensure that new drilling projects move forward.  That’s the kind of energy policy America needs in order to achieve energy-independence.

I’d love to imagine that.  In fact and unfortunately, we have a president who does exactly the opposite.

If you want someone like Folks is wishing for, you’ll have to go to Russia:

Unfortunately, it’s not Barack Obama who’s behind those positive energy policies; it’s Vladimir Putin.

As Russian president-elect, Putin has made it clear that he intends to open his country’s arctic and Black Sea regions to drilling.  The potential is so great, and the necessary investment so immense, that even Russia’s giant state-run oil companies, Rosneft and Gazprom, lack the resources and technology to proceed.  So, with Putin’s blessing, Rosneft and Gazprom have entered into joint-production agreements with Exxon, Italian major Eni, and other Western companies.  The stakes are huge — not just for these companies, but for the Russian economy.

The arctic and Black Sea fields being jointly developed by Rosneft and Eni contain an estimated 36 billion barrels of oil equivalents.  Those under development by Rosneft and Exxon, which may ultimately require an investment of as much as \$500 billion, contain estimated reserves of 36 billion barrels in the arctic Kara Sea fields alone.  (Total recoverable arctic reserves have been estimated at 134 billion barrels of oil equivalent but will likely go higher as exploration proceeds.)  In addition to the arctic and Black Sea fields covered in the Exxon and Eni agreements, president-elect Putin has expressed an interest in the possibility of joint ventures to develop vast Siberian tight shale formations.

The US has an incredible amount of natural resources including huge reserves of oil and natural gas.  We’re already the number 3 oil producer in the world.  And guess who actually leads the world with recoverable fossil fuel reserves?   Yes, that would be the US.  Imagine an energy policy that made extraction of that fuel a priority?  With aggressive exploration and drilling (as well as approval of the Keystone XL pipeline) we could have a 92% secure liquid fuel sources by 2030.  Not to mention, in a time of high unemployment, a jobs bonanza.

But what do we get?

Not that, that’s for sure.   We instead get a president who talks about an “all-of-the-above” energy policy while his actions belie his claims.  He’s turned lose a executive agency (EPA) on the fossil fuel industry that has already been slapped down numerous times by the judiciary for over-reach.  Drilling and permits on federal land have gone down dramatically.

In an oil market that has seen supplies tightening and prices going up, his administration has done everything to keep it that way.

And voters aren’t happy with his performance at all.

If this is going “Forward”, I’d hate to see backward.

~McQ

# Reid: “No Keystone for you!”

Can’t pass a budget in three years, is pretty sure the biggest reason to keep the financially insolvent USPS open is senior citizens like getting junk mail and wants the government paying your tax dollars to keep cowboy poetry alive, Harry Reid is a poster boy for the arguments against seniority as a means of picking leaders.

But when it comes to screwing over the best interests of the United State, well, you can definitely count on Harry to be on the side of those doing the screwing.

Senate Democrats will hold firm and reject House Republican demands to include approval of the Keystone oil pipeline in transportation funding legislation, their leader said Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said he would not in any way help Republicans move Keystone approval across the finish line.

“Personally, I’m not — I’m not one of the conferees — but personally I think Keystone is a program that we’re not going, that I am not going to help in any way I can,” Reid told reporters. “The president feels that way. I do, too.”

I’m sure the president does indeed feel the way Reid does.

Which should tell you all you need to know about where the President’s priorities are as well.

~McQ

# If I wanted America to fail …

I wouldn’t change a thing.

~McQ

# Another example of why government picking winners and losers normally ends with #FAIL

The other day this sort of slipped under the media radar:

First Solar Inc. will lay off 2,000 workers and close its factory in Germany following a collapse in solar panel prices that has erased the industry’s profits and forced some smaller companies into bankruptcy.

America’s biggest solar manufacturer said the layoffs amount to 30 percent of its global workforce.

B..b..but why!?  Green shoots, alternative energy, clean energy, what the frack?!

This is the future, the government says so!  How did it all go so wrong?  How in the world could solar panel prices “collapse”?

An influx of Chinese competitors has led to a rapid buildup in supply. At the same time governments in Europe, the biggest market for solar power, are reducing generous subsidy programs that had fueled demand. From March to December last year, solar panel prices dropped 50 percent, said Aaron Chew, an analyst with the Maxim Group.

Oh.

That damn “supply and demand” thingy again, right?

So let me get this straight … cheap foreign product (subsidized by the Chinese government) flooded the market created by government subsidized demand, driving up supply while lowering the price. Meanwhile the false demand that had been supported by “generous [government] subsidy programs” ended (thus ending the “demand”).  Consequently there is no demand for the current over supply and no one is buying the stuff?

Wow … who could have seen that coming?

And the current producer can’t make a profit and thus has to lay off people?

Oh.

You know, when you’ve seen the same thing over and over and over again (see Einstein’s definition of insanity), sometimes you just have to resort to sarcasm.

By the way for the terminally slow – news flash – that supply and demand thingy also seems to work in the petroleum market as well.

Go figure.

~McQ

# Scapegoating oil speculators–Obama counts on public’s economic ignorance to shift blame for high gas prices

Icould pretty much stop there and say the title tells you the story.  Obama knows high gas prices are not good for his re-election campaign.  He also knows his energy policies have actively worked against ameliorating or lowering the price of gas.

Therefore, it is necessary to find a scape-goat.  Someone or something he can shift the blame too and demonize.  In other words, the usual disingenuous attempt at distraction.

David Harsanyi explains what “speculators”, otherwise known as commodity traders, do:

Let’s start by being thankful for oil speculation — no matter what the motivation of those involved might be. To begin with, speculation allows companies with exposure to fluctuating commodity prices to hedge against rising costs by locking in. Sometimes the bet pays off; other times it doesn’t. But risk and profit are not yet crimes.

Oil speculation also offers consumers and investors information about the future that can help them make informed long-term decisions. Speculators trade commodities based on the information available in the marketplace. They reflect reality; they don’t create it.

But sometimes, unfortunate as it is, prices will rise. "Gouging," the close scaremongering cousin of "speculation," helps persuade consumers not to use what they don’t need. It incentivizes to modify behavior — our driving habits or the size of our cars. We conserve more when prices are higher, so we avoid shortages, and producers intensify their production. (Funny how Democrats get this concept when writing energy policy designed to artificially spike fossil fuel prices.)

In reality, this sort of trading helps moderate the market.  And, being a zero sum game – i.e. if you make money someone else loses it – it is done carefully.  As Harsanyi explains, they “reflect reality; they don’t create it”.  In essence you’re seeing a relatively free market work as it should.

Of course, what Barack Obama wants to do is have government intrude on that market because politically he doesn’t like the reality it is reflecting because it is politically damaging to him.  So:

Speaking from the Rose Garden, the president announced a proposal to spend \$52 million to fund increased government oversight of oil futures market trading in addition to harsher civil and criminal penalties for manipulation in energy markets. “We can’t afford a situation where some speculators can reap millions, while millions of American families get the short end of the stick,” Obama said. “That’s not the way the market should work.”

Or, said another way, if you make a profit based on your foresight, you’d be considered a criminal.  If you lose money, I suppose, that’s ok in Obama’s world.

Of course, it’s all nonsense (I mean how would Mr. Obama regulate oil trading in foreign exchanges?).  It is a calculated attempt to use ignorance of how these markets work to cause voters to shift their rage from him to his designated target.  Successful scapegoating means one less issue the opposition has to use against him (not that he doesn’t provide a target rich environment anyway).  He’s counting on this sort of populism to work.

David Kruetzer asks some questions I’d like to see the press ask:

If speculators are making unconscionable profits on energy, why are they only doing it occasionally and not all the time? Why are there only speculators in oil, not natural gas (whose current price is about half of what it averaged over the last decade)? And given how the petroleum market works — for every speculator who makes money on a trade, somebody else will lose money — the president’s theory “requires an endless string of chumps to take the other side of the speculators’ deals.”

And Kreutzer points out the basics of any commodities market, again something of which Obama banks on your ignorance:

For speculation to drive up prices, the speculators must either cause oil production to slow down (which they haven’t) or to pull oil off the market. If the flow of petroleum and its products remains unchanged, the price at the pump will not change. If petroleum is pulled off the market, which can happen even though there are limits to what can be stored, it will eventually come back on the market.

The question becomes, ‘When the oil comes back on the market, is the price higher or lower than when it was pulled off the market?’ The price will only be higher if the amount supplied at that time is lower or the demand is higher. In either of those cases, speculators have helped moderate price fluctuations and will be rewarded with profits. If the price is lower, then the speculators did a bad thing and will be punished by losing money.

So those are the basics of the issue as it concerns such trades and markets.

As can plainly be seen, Obama hasn’t a leg to stand on.  But that doesn’t stop him from claiming that government is the answer to this made up problem.

Why?  Well other that it is his political nature, he can’t sell the nonsense without some sort of “action”.   It becomes much more believable to those who don’t know better if he’s going to spend millions to regulate the contrived problem out of existence.

Of course he knows his actions will not have any positive effect on gas prices, and, in fact, may actually have a detrimental effect, which is why he couches this attempt at scapegoating the problem via government with “none of these steps by themselves will bring gas prices down overnight”.

But he can claim to be taking action while continuing to blame speculators for the problem and counting on general economic ignorance to carry the day for him.

Pretty typical of the man, I’ve come to learn.

~McQ

# The GOP has a chance to take the White House if it can discipline itself to stay on message

Pew Research as a survey out today that is one taken after Romney became the presumptive nominee for the GOP.  It compares its numbers to a survey taken while the GOP’s nomination was still contested.

Pew entitles it’s piece about the survey, “With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows”.  It subs it with “Social Issues Rank As Lowest Priorities”.

Hello out there GOP – are you reading this?  There’s your campaign.  What to stress.  What to avoid.

Any chance they’ll actually figure that out?

I mean so far we’ve talked about sluts, contraception, race, wars on women, stay at home moms, even about dogs riding on roofs (well at least the Romney’s didn’t eat the dog).

We’ve been distracted by the outrage of the week – Rush Limbaugh, Hillary Rosen, Ted Nugent, Bill Maher, etc.

That’s the left’s game plan, for heaven sake – Obama has a dismal, in fact awful economic record.  Horrible.

And yet the GOP is walking into every distraction trap the left sets like they haven’t a clue.

As I’ve been saying for months, once the nomination is settled, regardless of who the nominee is, and the focus begins to turn on Obama and his record, there will begin a shift in voter preference that should (note the word) carry the GOP nominee to the White House -  if the GOP plays its cards right.

Should.

Here’s what I mean:

Obama’s lead over Romney has narrowed since last month, when he had a 12-point advantage, though it is comparable to margins from earlier this year. While Obama’s advantage has declined since March, there is little to suggest a specific problem or campaign event as having a critical effect.

While there have been debates over issues related to gender, the rise and fall in Obama’s support has largely crossed gender lines, with a fairly consistent gender gap over time. For example, since March, Obama’s support among both men and women has slipped five percentage points.

Independent voters remain up for grabs. In the current survey, 48% favor Romney while 42% back Obama. A month ago, it was 47% Obama, 44% Romney.

If anyone would not expect an incumbent president to have some sort of  lead at this point, I’d say you don’t know much about American politics.

That said, as you can see by the change in a month, the lead is at best tentative, soft and narrowing.

But … there is still a way to absolutely screw up this chance at making Obama a one-term president and, unfortunately, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the GOP manage that.

That is, to concentrate on the wrong issues.  They have a track-record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory doing exactly that.

I’ll make it as simple as possible.

Limit the main issues of the GOP campaign to three themes: the economy, jobs and the debt.  Talk about how to improve the first two and reduce the third.  Talk about getting the hell out of the way while giving business the green light to lead us out of this economic morass.  Declare the war on fossil fuel to be over.   Talk about exploiting our natural resources and the jobs that will bring.  Put confidence back in the business sector that expansion and hiring will be enabled and supported, not killed with more and more regulation.  Talk about repealing ObamaCare and draconian regulations.  Talk about bringing America back.

Once the incumbent has given his concession speech, talk about whatever else tickles your fancy then. But discipline yourself until then.  Until then narrow the focus and be relentlessly on message.  Refuse the distraction traps.  Just flat refuse them.

Do that and the GOP has a shot.  The numbers will continue to improve.

Fall into the distraction traps and kiss victory goodbye.  If the other side is allowed to frame the campaign and establish the narrative and avoid examining Obama’s record,  the GOP loses.

We’ll see which course they choose.

~McQ