Economic Statistics for 2 May 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reached a five-year high this week, hitting -28.9.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows 38,121 layoffs in April, which is signifigantly less than the previous two months.
Falling imports shrank the US trade deficit to -38.8 billion in March. Imports fell -2.8%, while exports fell -0.9%.
Jobless claims fell 18,000 last week to 324,000. The 4-week average fell 16,000 to 342,250, a recovery low. The 4-week average for continuing claims also fell 18,000 to a new recovery low of 3.056 million.
Nonfarm business productivity rose an annualized 0.7% in the 1st Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 0.5%. Both numbers were worse than expected.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 1 May 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 1.8% last week, with purchases down -1.4% but re-fis up 3.0%.
ADP is reporting private payrolls rose by only 119,000 in April, down sharply from March’s 158,000, which seems like bad news for Friday’s Employment Situation.
The PMI Manufacturing Index fell to 52.1 in April on slowing order growth and employment.
The ISM Mfg Index fell to 50.7 in April, largely from a drop in inventories.
Construction spending fell -1.7% in March, with both public and private construction spending in decline. Spending is up 4.8% from last year.
Automakers are reporting sales today, and they look good. Ford reports an 18% increase, while GM and Chrysler report 11%.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 6.2 points to 68.1 in April.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.4 points to 49 in April. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, and this is the first negative reading for the Chicago PMI since September 2009.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.2% in February, up 9.3% from last year.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.3% in the 1st Quarter, a gain of 1.8% from 1Q 2012.
ICSC-Goldman reports a weak 0.4% increase in chain-store sales last week, and only a 2.6% increase from last year. Redbook reports a 2.8% increase in chain-store sales from last year.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 5.5 points in April to 93.6, mainly on a jump in American investor confidence.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% in March. The PCE price index fell by-0.1% at the headline level and was unchanged at the core. On a year-over-year basis, income rose 2.5% while spending rose 3.5%. The PCE price index rose 1.0%, while the core rate rose 1.1%.
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.5% in March to 105.7, the highest reading this year.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey collapsed from 7.4 in march to -15.6 in April. The production component slipped from 9.9 to -0.5. The series of negative Fed manufacturing reports continues.
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Dale Franks
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Observations: The QandO Podcast for 28 Apr 13
This week, Michael and Dale discuss Syria and Obamacare.
The direct link to the podcast can be found here.
As a reminder, if you are an iTunes user, don’t forget to subscribe to the QandO podcast, Observations, through iTunes. For those of you who don’t have iTunes, you can subscribe at Podcast Alley. And, of course, for you newsreader subscriber types, our podcast RSS Feed is here.
Economic Statistics for 26 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 76.4 from the mid-month reading of 72.3.
GDP growth in the 1st Quarter was a worse than expected 2.5% annualized. The GDP Price Index rose to an annual 1.2% rate. Essentially, GDP growth is still below trend, which should surprise no one.
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Dale Franks
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Worst. Political. Class. Ever.
Pretty much everybody knows Obamacare is a disaster. I mean, everybody who has an ounce of sense. Obviously, that excludes a lot of rank and file Lefty Democrats who think Obamacare is actually a fix or a cure for something, but most of those people are simple dolts anyway. But, apparently there’s plenty of agreement on both sides of the Congressional aisles that Obamacare is an unworkable albatross. How do we know this? Because Democrats and Republicans are negotiating some way to exempt Congress from Obamacare.
Congressional leaders in both parties are engaged in high-level, confidential talks about exempting lawmakers and Capitol Hill aides from the insurance exchanges they are mandated to join as part of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, sources in both parties said.
The talks — which involve Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), the Obama administration and other top lawmakers — are extraordinarily sensitive, with both sides acutely aware of the potential for political fallout from giving carve-outs from the hugely controversial law to 535 lawmakers and thousands of their aides…
The problem stems from whether members and aides set to enter the exchanges would have their health insurance premiums subsidized by their employer — in this case, the federal government. If not, aides and lawmakers in both parties fear that staffers — especially low-paid junior aides — could be hit with thousands of dollars in new health care costs, prompting them to seek jobs elsewhere. Older, more senior staffers could also retire or jump to the private sector rather than face a big financial penalty.
Plus, lawmakers — especially those with long careers in public service and smaller bank accounts — are also concerned about the hit to their own wallets.
In other words, unless they can exempt themselves from Obamacare’s exchange requirements, health costs for the Congressional employees will rise so much that they won’t be able to afford it.
So, both Democrats and Republicans clearly realize that Obamacare, if implemented in Congress, will kill jobs and raise health insurance costs. Is their solution to repeal Obamacare and save the rest of the country that same burden? No. Of course not. Their solution is to see how they can exempt themselves from the law. The rest of us, who have to live with it? Tough cookies, proles. Health care costs money. Deal with it.
I guess my only question is, why are we not not dragging members of Congress—of both parties—naked and screaming from their offices for a good tar and feathering?
The Republicans may make pleasant mouth noises about repealing Obamacare, but they will never do it. Even if they passed a bill, it’d die in the Senate or get vetoed by the President. So, knowing that, their fallback position is, "Well, let’s at least see if we can get ourselves exempted from it."
Both parties in Congress know Obamacare is an unworkable, unaffordable disaster, and their response is to just give a big "F you" to the American people. And, as far as I can see, the American people are just…gonna take it, tug their forelocks, and say, "As you wish, m’lud." As far as I can tell, the majority of Congress is composed of people so stupid it’s a wonder that they can think clearly enough to walk erect. And yet we keep electing them, and doing what they tell us to do. That idiot from Georgia, for example, who complained in a Congressional hearing that if we send too many marines to Guam the island will tip over and capsize…he got re-elected by his idiot constituency.
We really do deserve the total crapstorm that’s headed our way.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 25 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Initial Jobless claims fell 16,000 to 339,000 this week, while the 4-week average fell 3,725 to 357,500. Continuing claims fell 93,000 to 3.0 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 to -29.9 last week, still one of the highest levels in 4 years.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index remained at -5 in April, as activity in the district continued to slow.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 24 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Durable Goods Orders were disappointing in March, down -5.7% overall, and down -1.4% ex-transportation.
The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 0.2% last week, with purchases and re-fis both up 0.3%.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 23 Apr 13
The following US economic statistics were announced today:
In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a soft 1.8% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 0.8%, and a weak 1.9% increase on a year-over-year basis.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for April fell nearly 3 points to 53.0.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.7% in March, and is up 7.1% on a year-over-year basis.
New home sales for March were weaker than expected, with a 1.5% increase to a 417,000 annual rate.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell a steep 9 points to -3 in April.
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Dale Franks
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