Don’t like the GDP numbers? Change the rules …
Seems easy enough. That way you can claim to be improving it even while nothing is actually improving in reality:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced last week it would be changing the guidelines with which it calculates Gross Domestic Product, more familiarly known as the GDP, the standard by which the size and growth of the economy is measured.
The change comes after more than five years of economic stagnation that, despite frequent claims of a strengthening recovery, have seen high unemployment and extremely slight growth in the size of the economy.
GDP is calculated by adding up the total amount of private consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. The new changes, which will include definitional changes to expand what is counted in GDP, are expected to add 3 percent to the GDP report, while not changing the actual output of the economy.
The agency claims the changes in calculation “more accurately portray the evolving U.S. economy and to provide for consistent comparisons with data for the economies of other nations.”
Note the emphasized text. Realize that the addition of 3% to future GDP reports will be made without any explanation that a) there have been changes in the way it was calculate and b) in reality, the actual output of the economy has not changed at all.
But the administration will claim victory and the low information voters will buy it while the “no” information voters (those on the left who refuse to challenge anything put out by this administration) will crow about the “improvements” that the administration has brought to the economy.
Meanwhile the unemployment picture will remain the same (about 7.5%) until they can find a new way to calculate that and take about 3% off . Then we’ll be officially “fixed”.
Amazing.
~McQ
Economic Statistics for 2 May 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reached a five-year high this week, hitting -28.9.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows 38,121 layoffs in April, which is signifigantly less than the previous two months.
Falling imports shrank the US trade deficit to -38.8 billion in March. Imports fell -2.8%, while exports fell -0.9%.
Jobless claims fell 18,000 last week to 324,000. The 4-week average fell 16,000 to 342,250, a recovery low. The 4-week average for continuing claims also fell 18,000 to a new recovery low of 3.056 million.
Nonfarm business productivity rose an annualized 0.7% in the 1st Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 0.5%. Both numbers were worse than expected.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 1 May 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 1.8% last week, with purchases down -1.4% but re-fis up 3.0%.
ADP is reporting private payrolls rose by only 119,000 in April, down sharply from March’s 158,000, which seems like bad news for Friday’s Employment Situation.
The PMI Manufacturing Index fell to 52.1 in April on slowing order growth and employment.
The ISM Mfg Index fell to 50.7 in April, largely from a drop in inventories.
Construction spending fell -1.7% in March, with both public and private construction spending in decline. Spending is up 4.8% from last year.
Automakers are reporting sales today, and they look good. Ford reports an 18% increase, while GM and Chrysler report 11%.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 6.2 points to 68.1 in April.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.4 points to 49 in April. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, and this is the first negative reading for the Chicago PMI since September 2009.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.2% in February, up 9.3% from last year.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.3% in the 1st Quarter, a gain of 1.8% from 1Q 2012.
ICSC-Goldman reports a weak 0.4% increase in chain-store sales last week, and only a 2.6% increase from last year. Redbook reports a 2.8% increase in chain-store sales from last year.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose 5.5 points in April to 93.6, mainly on a jump in American investor confidence.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% in March. The PCE price index fell by-0.1% at the headline level and was unchanged at the core. On a year-over-year basis, income rose 2.5% while spending rose 3.5%. The PCE price index rose 1.0%, while the core rate rose 1.1%.
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.5% in March to 105.7, the highest reading this year.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey collapsed from 7.4 in march to -15.6 in April. The production component slipped from 9.9 to -0.5. The series of negative Fed manufacturing reports continues.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 26 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 76.4 from the mid-month reading of 72.3.
GDP growth in the 1st Quarter was a worse than expected 2.5% annualized. The GDP Price Index rose to an annual 1.2% rate. Essentially, GDP growth is still below trend, which should surprise no one.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 25 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Initial Jobless claims fell 16,000 to 339,000 this week, while the 4-week average fell 3,725 to 357,500. Continuing claims fell 93,000 to 3.0 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 to -29.9 last week, still one of the highest levels in 4 years.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index remained at -5 in April, as activity in the district continued to slow.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 24 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Durable Goods Orders were disappointing in March, down -5.7% overall, and down -1.4% ex-transportation.
The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 0.2% last week, with purchases and re-fis both up 0.3%.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 23 Apr 13
The following US economic statistics were announced today:
In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a soft 1.8% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 0.8%, and a weak 1.9% increase on a year-over-year basis.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for April fell nearly 3 points to 53.0.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.7% in March, and is up 7.1% on a year-over-year basis.
New home sales for March were weaker than expected, with a 1.5% increase to a 417,000 annual rate.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell a steep 9 points to -3 in April.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 22 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Existing home sales fell 0.6% in march to a worse-than-expected 4.92 million annual rate.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.23 for March, while the 3-month average fell to -0.01.
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Dale Franks
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