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Economic Statistics for 3 Jul 14

A net 288,000 new jobs were created in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%. Average weekly earnings rose 0.2%, but weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours. Underlying fundamentals aren’t great, however. In June, 2013, 89.7 million people were out of the labor force. In June, 2014, it was 92.1 million.  In the same time period, the civilian non-institutional population rose from 245.6 million to 247.8 million, or 2.2 million. So, 2.2 million were added to the working age population, while 2.4 million fewer were in the labor force. In other words, Job growth is still less than population growth, hence the 62.8% labor forces participation rate Since October, 2013, labor force participation has hovered at levels not seen since 1978, as the unemployment rate has “declined”. 

The trade deficit in May shrank to a better-than-expected $-44.4 billion, down from $-47.0 billion in April.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 points to 36.4 in the latest week.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -0.3 points to 56.0.

The US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose 1.9 points to 61.0 in June.

JP Morgan reports the global Composite PMI rose 1.1 points to 55.4, while the Services PMI rose 1.2 points to 55.8.

Weekly initial jobless claims rose 3,000 to 315,000. The 4-week average rose 750 to 315,000. Continuing claims rose 10,000 to 2.579 million.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $8.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.377 trillion. Total reserve bank credit fell by $-1.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $43.5 billion in the latest week.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report estimates there were 31,434 layoffs in June, down from 52,961 in May.


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Economic Statistics for 1-2 Jul 14

Motor vehicle sales rose 1.2% in June to a 17.0 million annual rate. That’s the strongest rate since July 2006.

ICSC-Goldman reports retail sales rose 1.0%, while the rear-over-year rate rose to 4.6% in the latest week. Conversely, Redbook says year-over-year retail sales growth fell to 3.1% in the latest week.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index rose 0.3 points to 57.3 in June.

The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.1 point to 55.3 in June.

Construction Spending rose a less-than-expected 0.1% in May. Spending rose 6.6% on a year-ago basis.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 points to 52.7 in June.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index fell -1 point to -15 in June.

The MBA reports that mortgage application fell 0.2% in the latest week, with purchases down -1.0%, but re-fis up 0.1%.

The ADP national employment report estimates that a strong increase of 281,000 private payroll jobs were created in June.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index is unchanged at 27 in June.

Gallup’s Payroll to Population employment rate rose 0.5% to 45.0% in June.

Factory orders fell 0.5% in May, but nondefense orders rose 0.2%. A 0.7% rise in nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft is a positive.


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Economic Statistics for 26 May 14

Personal income rose 0.4% in May, while personal spending rose 0.2%. The May PCE Price index rose 0.2% at both the headline and core level. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up and up 1.5% less food and energy.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell from 10 in May to 6 in June.

Weekly initial jobless claims fell 2,000 to 312,000. The 4-week average rose 3,000 to 314,250. Continuing claims rose 12,000 to 2.571 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is unchanged at 37.1 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $0.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.368 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $9.7 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $4.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 24-25 Jun 14

The State Street Investor Confidence Index was unchanged at 119.5 in June.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index slowed to 3 in June versus 7 in May.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 85.2 in June–a recovery high–from a revised 82.2 in May.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index slowed to 3 in June versus 7 in May.

New home sales in May jumped 18.6% to a far-better-than-expected 504,000 annual rate.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.2% in April. The index was 10.8% higher on a year-over-year basis. The FHFA purchase only house price index was unchanged in April, but up 5.95 on a year-over-year basis.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a 3.3% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 2.0%, and a 4.1% increase on a year-over-year basis.

The Commerce Department’s final GDP revision for the 1st Quarter of 2014 was a shockingly negative -2.9% annualized decline. The GDP Price index, however, rose 1.3%, annualized.

Durable goods orders fell -1.0% in May, well below expectations. Less transportation, orders fell -0.1%.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell 1.0% last week, with purchases and refinancings both down 1.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 19 Jun 14

The general conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed Survey rose 2.4 points to a very strong 17.8.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5 percent in May, following April’s 0.3% rise.

Weekly initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 312,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 311,750. Continuing claims fell 54,000 to a new recovery low of 2.561 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.6 points to 37.1 in the latest week, near recovery highs.

The Fed’s balance sheet increased $27.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.368 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $28.8 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell $-9.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Jun 14

The MBA reports that rising mortgage rates sent mortgage applications down -9.2% in the latest week. Purchases fell -5.0%, while re-fis dropped -13.0%.

The nation’s current account deficit the 1st Quarter of 2014 rose to $-111.2 billion from a revised $-87.3 billion in 4Q 2013.

The Federal Open Markets Committee left interest rates unchanged today, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0% – 0.25%.

The FOMC’s June projection for economic growth: 2014: 2.1-2.3%; 2015: 3.0-3.2%; 2016: 2.5-3.0%; longer run: 2.1-2.2%. Again, the prediction is for continuing subpar GDP growth.


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Economic Statistics for 16 Jun 14

The Empire State manufacturing index remained strong for June, rising a slight 0.27 points to a strong 19.28.

The Treasury reports that net foreign demand for long-term US securities fell $-24.2 billion in June.

Industrial production rose 0.6% in May, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories rose 0.5% to 79.1%.

The NAHB housing market index for June rose 4 points to 49, just one point under the break-even reading of 50.


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