Economic Statistics for 4 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was essentially unchanged in the latest week, at -34.1.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report reports that there were 49,255 announced layoff in March, substantially higher than the year-ago total of 37,880.
Initial jobless claims rose a sharp 28,000 to 385,000. The 4-week average rose 11,250 to 354,250. Continuing claims fell 8,000 to 3.067 million.
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Dale Franks
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Jobless numbers “unexpectedly” rise to 4 month high
Because, you know, we’re in a (perpetual) recovery and stuff like this isn’t supposed to happen:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a four-month high last week, the latest suggestion the labor market recovery lost some momentum in March.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 385,000, the highest level since November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Economists, who had expected claims to drop to 350,000, said while part of the rise reflected difficulties adjusting the data during the Easter and spring breaks, there was no doubt the pace of job growth had eased.
“What we do know is that the growth momentum has slowed, employment has slowed. The question is how much?” said Millan Mulraine, a senior economist at TD Securities in New York.
How much? Well let’s consider something shall we? What has recently and finally gone into full effect to the point that employers can now finally make some plans with reference to it as to how many they plan to employ (or continue to employ)?
Oh, yeah, ObamaCare. The taxes and penalties kick in this year and – not saying this is the only reason – companies and corporations are finally put in the position of executing their plan to avoid the prohibitive costs and penalties imposed.
That’s right – “avoid”. Again, as is usually the case, the left has ignored Human Nature 101 as they usually do. You have to remember, the purpose of their utopia is to change human nature once and for all from a self-interested and independent being to a hive worker enslaved to the state, er, an enlightened being who thinks of others first … yeah, that’s the ticket.
And when their utopian plans meet human nature, well they call the result “unintended consequences”. We who study human nature call them “entirely predictable outcomes”. They seem surprised by these “unexpected” developments. We simply shake our head at their studied stupidity.
The problem, of course, is they presently have the power of the state in their hands. What that means is they will continue to try to drive the square peg of their utopia into the round hole of human nature and use the power of government to do so.
What that means is at some point, when they’re finally out of power, we’re going to have to pick up their pieces of what they’ve destroyed and try to piece it together in some form or fashion, if that’s possible.
And all the while that’s being attempted, we’ll have to listen to them whining and complaining that what is being done isn’t “fair” or “equitable”.
Well, what you’re suffering now is a result of “fair and equitable” nonsense that ignored Human Nature 101. Maybe it’s time to figure that out if you’re on the left.
~McQ
Economic Statistics for 3 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The MBA reports mortgage applications fell -4.0% last week. While purchases were up 1.0%, re-fis fell -6.0%.
ADP’s Employment Report for March shows a weak 158,000 new private payroll jobs, pointing to weakness in Friday’s Employment Situation.
The ISM Non-Mfg Index fell 1.6 points to 54.4 in March. The employment component fell a sharp 3.9 points.
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Dale Franks
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What was Einstein’s definition of “insanity”?
Oh yeah, “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.
Today’s example, via the usual suspects, just boggles the mind:
The Obama administration is engaged in a broad push to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit, an effort that officials say will help power the economic recovery but that skeptics say could open the door to the risky lending that caused the housing crash in the first place.
President Obama’s economic advisers and outside experts say the nation’s much-celebrated housing rebound is leaving too many people behind, including young people looking to buy their first homes and individuals with credit records weakened by the recession.
In response, administration officials say they are working to get banks to lend to a wider range of borrowers by taking advantage of taxpayer-backed programs — including those offered by the Federal Housing Administration — that insure home loans against default.
This is just, frankly, incredible in its stupidity. We’ve been here, done this and suffered the consequences in terms of a financial meltdown and an economy that seems to be in permanent “recession”. We’d have the T-shirt too, but they took it off our backs.
Consider the administration’s solution to the perception that we’re “leaving too many people behind: Let’s do again what was a major contributor to the last melt down. No prob. They’ll just blame the banks and the “market”. The result: more people “left behind”.
I mean, it hasn’t even been a decade yet. We’re not even doing this with a new administration. These are, for the most part, the same people who crashed it last time.
Why is it that “leaving too many people behind” is the priority, when in the past those who were supposedly left behind, found some way in the future to catch up? Why is it government’s job to “insure” risky loans because of that feel-good claptrap?
Because we’re freakin nuts, that’s why. We’re bound and determined to ruin this country based on an ideology that plays to “feelings” and “emotions” rather than good common sense, the laws of economics and freedom and libery. That’s why.
This is tar and feathers worthy, yet we’ll sit around like lumps while a majority claims it’s a “good idea” because it is “only fair”.
“Fair”. The word that will – is – ruining this country.
~McQ
Some sanity, sad as it is
It’s not often one finds a dose of sanity in the New York Times. When one does, it should be celebrated, rather than ignored. In this case, the sanity comes from David Stockman, former budget director for President Reagan. His bottom line is no different than what I’ve been predicting since 2009. It’s just as gloomy:
[T]he Main Street economy is failing while Washington is piling a soaring debt burden on our descendants, unable to rein in either the warfare state or the welfare state or raise the taxes needed to pay the nation’s bills. By default, the Fed has resorted to a radical, uncharted spree of money printing. But the flood of liquidity, instead of spurring banks to lend and corporations to spend, has stayed trapped in the canyons of Wall Street, where it is inflating yet another unsustainable bubble.
When it bursts, there will be no new round of bailouts like the ones the banks got in 2008. Instead, America will descend into an era of zero-sum austerity and virulent political conflict, extinguishing even today’s feeble remnants of economic growth.
He calls it a state-wreck, which is exactly what it is. An arrogant government that thinks it can fix everything, help everyone, and create money out of nothing has corrupted the markets & political culture, and mortgaged our future.
Even now, the Fed, after two previous rounds of "monetary stimulus"—code words for creating en ever larger supply of "money"—is dumping $44 billion cash into the market every month. And where it going? Creating millions of new jobs? No. It’s just going to Wall Street, where the equity markets have hit an all-time high.
The wheels have been wobbling for the last five years. Sometime in the not-too-distant future, they’ll simply…come off, and then we shall see what we see.
Read the whole article. Save it. Print it out. Keep it. That way, you’ll be be able to show your children how the richest, most powerful nation in the history of the earth committed suicide.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 2 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Automakers are reporting the strongest monthly sales in 6 years for March. Ford, GM: 6%, Chrysler: 5%, Toyota,Nissan 1%.
In weekly retail sales, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales rose 4.7% for the week, but are up only 1.9% from last year. Redbook reports a strong year-on-year sales increase of 3.5%.
Factory orders rose 3.0% in February, and January’s number was revised upwards by a full 1% to -1.0%. Ex-Transportation, orders rose only 0.3%, however.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 1 Apr 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing index rose 0.3 points to 54.6 for March; however, the ISM manufacturing Index fell almost 3 points to 51.3.
Construction spending for February rose 1.2%. On a year-over-year basis, spending was up 7.9%.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Mar 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
Personal income rose 1.1% in February, while personal spending rose 0.7%. The PCE Price Index, an inflation measure, rose 0.4% at the headline level, and 0.1% at the core. On a year-over-year basis, personal income is up 2.6%, while spending is up 3.3%. The PCE Price Index is up 1.3%.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index erased last month’s decline, rising to a strong 78.6 in March.
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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 28 Mar 13
Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:
The final GDP estimate for 4th Quarter of 2012 came in at 0.4% annualized. The GDP price index, an inflation measure, rose 1.0%.
Initial jobless claims rose 16,000 to 357,000 last week. The 4-week average rose 3,250 to 343,000. Continuing claims fell 27,000 to 3.050 million, a recovery low.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly fell to 52.4 in March from 56.8.
Corporate profits in the 4th Quarter of 2012 rose 7.5% to $1.774 trillion annualized, up from $1.742 trillion in the third quarter.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.5 points to -34.4 in the latest week.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose 5 points to -5 in March.
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Dale Franks
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Study: Government policy primarily the reason for sub-prime mortgage meltdown
Despite the attempt by government and particularly Democrats, to blame the financial meltdown we’ve endured on banks and unscrupulous investment companies, the buck stops with them according to a new study just released:
Democrats and the media insist the Community Reinvestment Act, the anti-redlining law beefed up by President Clinton, had nothing to do with the subprime mortgage crisis and recession.
But a new study by the respected National Bureau of Economic Research finds, “Yes, it did. We find that adherence to that act led to riskier lending by banks.”
Added NBER: “There is a clear pattern of increased defaults for loans made by these banks in quarters around the (CRA) exam. Moreover, the effects are larger for loans made within CRA tracts,” or predominantly low-income and minority areas.
As we’ve mentioned previously any number of times, government policies can set and enforce preverse incentives. And that has nothing to do with a free market. That’s at best a mixed market. So no, the problem wasn’t a “market failure”, it was the usual result of government intruding and setting preverse incentives that are contrary to good business practices and would likely not survive or succeed in an actual free market.
Here’d the bottom line:
The strongest link between CRA lending and defaults took place in the runup to the crisis — 2004 to 2006 — when banks rapidly sold CRA mortgages for securitization by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Wall Street.
CRA regulations are at the core of Fannie’s and Freddie’s so-called affordable housing mission. In the early 1990s, a Democrat Congress gave HUD the authority to set and enforce (through fines) CRA-grade loan quotas at Fannie and Freddie.
It passed a law requiring the government-backed agencies to “assist insured depository institutions to meet their obligations under the (CRA).” The goal was to help banks meet lending quotas by buying their CRA loans.
But they had to loosen underwriting standards to do it. And that’s what they did.
Not only that, they guaranteed the bad loans with your money. Why do you think so much money has had to be pumped into those two institutions?
You see the market had determined that certain standards protected their investments. The government decided to ignore reality and push a social agenda using “race” as the basis for throwing out those standards and using their coercive power to implement the social agenda they preferred.
The result was predictable.
And the coverup as well.
~McQ