The Treasury Budget and Import/Export Prices reports have been delayed due to the government shutdown.
Chain stores reported reported today that September retail sales were mainly flat.
Initial jobless claims rose 66,000 last week, to 374,000, due to some counting issues. The 4-week moving average rose 20,000to 325,000. Continuing claims fell 16,000 to 2.905 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell 3 ticks -29.7.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $11.3 billion last week, with total assets of $3.759 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $13.7 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $50.4 billion last week.
I’d like to say this is astonishing, and it would be if a Republican was in the White House because our press would make it so. But with Obama? Meh:
“President Obama said that increasing the debt limit does not increase the debt,” the minority side of the Senate Budget Committee says in a statement. “But when the Treasury department started using so-called extraordinary measures to avoid a breach of the debt ceiling in May, 2011, the debt limit stood at $14,294 billion.
“Today it stands at $16,699 billion, which was reached when Treasury started using extraordinary measures in May of this year. That’s a $2,405 billion increase in 2 years.
“Meanwhile, the economy, as measured by GDP only increased by $1,199 billion between the second quarter of 2011 and the second quarter of this year.
“So the debt increased twice as much as the economy over the last two years, the very definition of unsustainable. The growth of a nation’s debt cannot for long exceed the growth of its economy – which is precisely what is happening now.”
If you need a picture, try this:
And, of course, they’re asking for more. So here’s the question: If we give them more, what will they want next? Answer: Why more, of course.
So at some point, you have to say “no” don’t you?
Well common sense says you do, but apparently for this crowd, that sense isn’t at all that common.
So we do the circus thing, year after year after year and we build charts like this?
Hell, that’s the chart of a 3rd world country.
And the word that should be plaster across the top of it is “unsustainable”.
Meanwhile, in DC, they continue to wrangle over more debt.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in September, to 93.9 vice 94.1 in August.
ICSC-Goldman reports retail sales fell -0.1% this week, and were up only 2.1% on a year-ago basis. Redbook’s same-store sales growth fell to a year-on-year plus 3.3%.
The International Trade report is unavailable to the government shutdown.
A big increase in Student loans inflated consumer credit by $13.6 billion in August, but revolving debt continues to decline. This may point to slowing consumer spending.
Americans’ average self-reported daily spending fell back significantly in September to $84 from $95 in August, the lowest level since February.
The Factory Orders report is delayed due to the government shutdown.
The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows 40,289 layoffs in September, the second highest number since April, But well below August’s 50,462.
Gallup reports that the U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate fell to 43.5% in September, from 43.7% in August.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell a point to -29.4.
Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week, to 308,000. The 4-week moving average fell 3,000 to 305,000. Continuing claims rose 104,000 to 2.925 million.
The ISM Non-Mfg Index fell 4 points to 54.4 in September.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $13.4 billion last week, with total assets of $3.747 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $2.1 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $38.1 billion last week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell 0.4% last week, with purchases down 6.0% but re-fis up 3.0%.
ADP reports that September private-sector job growth was weaker than expected, with only 166,000 private sector jobs created.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index fell a point to 21 in September.
Confirmation of the private sector jobs reports would usually come from the government’s official statistics on the first Friday of the month, but the government shutdown may delay the release of the BLS’s September Employment Situation.
Total vehicle sales fell a sharp 5.1% in September, to a 15.3 million annualized sales rate. Domestic vehicle sales were 11.8 million vice 12.6 million in August.
Redbook reports chain-store sales rose to a 3.8% year-on-year sales rate. ICSC-Goldman’s same-store sales index rose 0.2% last week, with year-over-year sales growth of 2.1%.
Markit Economics’ PMI manufacturing index fell 0.3 points to 52.8 in September.
The ISM manufacturing index rose 0.5 points to 56.2 in September.
The construction spending report due today has been delayed due to the government shutdown.