This will be a catch-up entry, as I was unable to do yesterday’s statistics, due to my evening management class.
Only about 10 chain stores still post monthly results any more. Mostly, they report a weak November.
Layoff announcements continue to run at 2-year highs, at 45,314 in November vs 45,730 in October.
Gallup’s US Payroll to Population employment rate was steady at 43.7%.
The first revision of Q3 GDP came it at a 3.6% annualized rate. Sadly, this was almost all due to inventory accumulation. Final sales were actually revised downwards to 1.9%. The GDP price index came in at 2.0%.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell 23,000 to 298,000. The 4-week moving average fell 9,500 to 322,250. Continuing claims fell 21,000 to a recovery low of 2.744 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2 points to -31.3 this week.
Factory Orders fell -0.9% in October. Ex-transportation orders were unchanged.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $6.8 billion last week, with total assets of $3.933 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $2.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $15.4 billion last week.
The BLS reports that 203,000 net new jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 7.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while the average workweek rose 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours. The labor force participation rate rose 0.2% to 63%, as an additional 818,000 persons entered the labor force. The number of unemployed fell by –365,000, while the number of persons not in the labor force fell by -268,000. Using the historical average labor force participation rate, the real rate of unemployment is 11.54%.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index for December rose a sharp 7.4 points to 82.5.
Consumer credit rose a sharp $18.2 billion in October.
Thanks to the government shutdown, there were two new home sales reports issued today, one for September and one for October. New home sales fell -6.6% in September to a 354,000 annual rate. New home sales rose dramatically in October, up 25.4% to a very solid 444,000 annual rate.
The US trade deficit narrowed by $1.2 billion in October, to $-40.6 billion, mainly on a 1.8% rebound in exports.
The Fed’s Beige Book report on the economy concludes that "the economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from early October through mid-November." So, basically, below-trend economic growth continues.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -1.5 points to 53.9 in November.
MBA Mortgage Applications fell -12.8% last week, with purchases down -4.0% and re-fis down -18.0%.
ADP reports that private payroll growth was higher than expected in November, with an estimated 215,000 net new jobs.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index rose 1 point to 20 in November.
Motor vehicle sales were much higher than expectations, at an annual sales rate of 16.4 million units. Sales increases from last year: GM 14%, Ford 7.2%, Chrysler 16%, Toyota 10.1%, Nissan 10.7%, Honda -0.1%, Subaru 29.9%, Hyundai 5.0%, Kia 1.3%, Audi 13.4%, BMW, -0.4%, VW -16.3%, Mazda -4.5%, Mitsubishi 69.9%, Jaguar/Land Rover 37%.
In weekly retail sales, Redbook showed 4.9% annual sales growth, while ICSC-Goldman showed a -2.8% drop for the week, and only a 2.5% annual increase.
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index rose from -35 to -25 in November.
The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.3 in November, the strongest reading in 2 1/2 years.
The PMI Manufacturing Index rose 4 points to 54.7.
Construction spending rose 0.8% in October, mainly on government outlays. Spending is up 5.3% from a year ago.
The Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure indicates that self-reported daily spending averaged $91 in November, up $3 from October.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.3% last week, with purchases down -0.2% and re-fis up 0.1%.
Durable goods orders dropped -2.0% in October, with ex-transportation orders also down -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 5.3%, while orders ex-transportation are up 4.3%.
Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 316,000. The 4-week average fell 7,500 to 331,750, while continuing claims fell 91,000 to 2.776 million.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from 0.14 to -0.18 for October.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index fell -2.9 points in November to 63.0.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose a point to -33.7 in the latest week.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 3.1 points to 75.1 in November.
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.2% in October.
In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a 3.8% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 2.6%, and a 2.1% increase on a year-over-year basis.
There are two months of Housing Starts data released today, but the shutdown is holding up the starts data. Permits data is available, however, with September permits up 5.2% to an 0.974 million annual rate. October permits jumped 6.2% to a 1.034 million annual rate.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% in September, which is an 8.5% year-over-year gain.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.0% in September, showing accelerating appreciation in home prices.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in November fell -0.8 points to 70.4.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index jumped 12 points to 13 in November.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell more than four points to 91.3.
The Pending Home Sales Index fell -0.6% to 102.1 in October, the 5th consecutive monthly decline.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey’s Business Activity Index fell -1.7 points to 1.9 in November. Conversely, though, the production index rose 3.6 points to 16.9.
Initial jobless claims fell 16,000 last week, to 323,000. The 4-week moving average fell 6,750 to 338,500. Continuing claims rose 66,000 to 2,876 million.
The October Producer Price Index declined -0.2% overall, but rose o.2% less food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI rose 0.3% at the headline level, and up 1.4% at the core.
Markit Economics’ PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose more than three points to 54.3 in November.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to -34.6.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey’s General Business Conditions Index fell from 19.8 in October to 6.5 in November.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-0.8 billion last week, with total assets of $3.907 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $35.1 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply decreased by $-24.9 billion last week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.3% last week, with purchases up 6.0% but refinancings down -7.0%.
Consumer prices fell -0.1% in October, but rose 0.1% ex-food and -energy. On a year-over year basis, the CPI is up 0.9% overall, and 1.7% at the core level.
Business Inventories rose 0.6% in September. With a 0.2% rise in sales, the stock-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.29 for the fifth consecutive month.
Existing Home Sales fell -3.2% in October, to a 5.12 million annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 6.0%.