I missed posting yesterday, so this post will be a bit longer than most.
The Philadelphia Fed Surveys’s big jump in June was a one-time blip, as the July index fell to 5.7 from 15.2.
The housing market index was unchanged at 60 in July, but it is still the strongest reading since November 2005.
The Treasury reports that Net Foreign Demand for Long-Term US Securities jumped $93.0 billion in May on strong foreign interest in both US Treasuries and corporate bonds.
Consumer inflation rose 0.3% in June, with the core rate—less food and energy—up 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, inflation is up just 0.1% overall, but up 1.8% at the core.
Strong demand for apartment units drove housing starts up 9.8% in June at a 1.174 million annual rate. Building permits, an indicator of future activity, jumped 7.4% overall to a 1.343 million rate.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 93.3 in July, from June’s reading of 96.1.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 15,000 to 281,000. The 4-week average rose 3,250 to 282,500. Continuing claims fell 112,000 to 2.215 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 43.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $12.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.494 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $7.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $12.6 billion in the latest week.
“Who would have imagined we would be giving up the conventional arms and ballistic missile embargoes on Iran? In nuclear negotiations?”
That’s the question Charles Krauthammer asked today.
Anyone care to make a guess?
When asked Wednesday at his news conference why there is nothing in the deal about the American hostages being held by Iran, President Obama explained that this is a separate issue, not part of nuclear talks.
Are conventional weapons not a separate issue? After all, conventional, by definition, means non-nuclear. Why are we giving up the embargoes?
Because Iran, joined by Russia — our “reset” partner — sprung the demand at the last minute, calculating that Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry were so desperate for a deal that they would cave. They did. And have convinced themselves that they scored a victory by delaying the lifting by five to eight years. (Ostensibly. The language is murky. The interval could be considerably shorter.)
There is the second pregnant question – if the hostages are a separate issue, so are conventional weapons, aren’t they?
But then, you find out that both Obama and Kerry fell victim to a negotiating trick that only a rookie would cave too. The tactic is well known and has been associated with Cold War USSR negotiations for decades. They teach it in Negotiating 101. This is what they always do and you have to know your opponent well enough to expect it and have a strategy to counteract it. As usual, Obama and Kerry were unprepared.
What Obama said about the hostages, if he really believes it, was the perfect answer to the Iranians when they sprang this on them.
But desperation is what the Iranians and Russians were counting on. Anything to make the deal. They knew how desperate these two were. So they held one of the most outrageous demands until the seeming end of the negotiations. When the end was tantalizingly in sight and time was running out. The Iranians gauged well the desperate desire for an agreement that the Obama/Kerry cabal had.
And so they used it against them to make a mockery of the deal.
Stunning. The incompetence and ineptness aren’t what stun anyone – that’s been demonstrated so many times in the past 6 years it’s the new normal for this administration. What’s stunning is what they gave away when they didn’t have too.
But then, this is the Obama administration and the Secretary of State is John Kerry.
Abe Greenwald explains:
As far as legacy, what politician doesn’t want one? For Obama, a nominal nuclear deal may make him feel as if he’s earned the Nobel Prize once furnished him as election swag. John Kerry’s own efforts to earn a Nobel by brokering Middle East peace became another footnote in the story of Palestinian obstinacy. He too had something to prove.
From the administration’s standpoint, the deal was a grand slam. If it left Iran as an official nuclear power on the perpetual verge of a breakout, well, that was always the bargaining chip to get everything else. And with the United States having shown extraordinary cooperation and forgiveness, the thinking goes, even a nuclear Iran will become a less bellicose and more collegial member of the community of nations. What good the deal has already done, the administration believes, will continue to pay dividends. As is his wont, Obama is now declaring as much. But by the time his vision is upended by facts, he’ll be out of office, and we won’t have the luxury of fighting reality with abstractions.
Obama is desperate for a positive legacy. Obamacare is the White Elephant in the room. It will, one day, be declared the disaster it really is (but that will require the time for it to really demonstrate how horrendous a piece of legislation it truly was … it’s getting there). The man who wanted to make “government cool” has managed to make it not only cool but the butt of jokes. Ratings for all branches of government have plunged on his watch. Race relations and corruption are worse on his watch. And his foreign policy has been clueless. It has also be reactive and rudderless. Just as respect for government has plunged, so has respect for the US (even Jimmy Carter admits this).
So yeah, two guys who have accomplished little or nothing in their lives are wanting to leave a mark.
Too bad it will more likely resemble a skid mark in a pair underwear, when all is said and done, than any mark of accomplishment. But then, we’ve always known the left was more into style than substance. And Obama and Kerry have built in some blame shifting room in the Iran agreement. If, 8 or 10 years out, Iran has the bomb, it will be the fault of whoever is in the White House (and GW Bush, if they can swing it), not them.
Producer Prices for Final Demand rose 0.4% in June, with the core rising 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, PPI-FD is down -0.7%, but up 0.8% less food and energy. Overall PPI-FD results:
PPI-FD – M/M: 0.4%
PPI-FD less food & energy – M/M: 0.3%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services – M/M: 0.3%
PPI-FD Goods – M/M: 0.7%
PPI-FD Services – M/M: 0.3%PPI-FD – Y/Y: -0.7%
PPI-FD – Y/Y: -0.7%
PPI-FD less food & energy – Y/Y: 0.8%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services – Y/Y: 0.7%
PPI-FD Goods – Y/Y: -3.7%
PPI-FD Services – Y/Y: 0.8%
The Fed reports that June industrial production rose 0.3%, as did capacity utilization in the nations factories, rising to 78.4%.
Today’s Beige Book from the Fed reports that 10 of 12 Fed districts are reporting only moderate to modest growth.
The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey shows inflation expectations rose 0.1% in July to 2.0%.
The Empire State Manufacturing index rose from -1.98 to 3.86 in July, but the new orders component is still dragging at -3.50.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -1.9% last week, with purchases down -8.0%, but refis up 4.0%.
PPI-FD Goods – Y/Y: -3.7%
The NFIB’s index of mall business optimism fell very sharply in June, down -4.2 points to 94.1 with 8 of 10 components falling.
Retail sales showed broad weakness in June, with sales falling -0.3% overall, -0.1 less autos, and -0.2% less autos and gas.
June export prices fell -0.2% while import prices fell -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, prices fell -5.7% for exports, and -10.0% for imports.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.4% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.0%. Today’s official retail sales numbers highlight the ongoing weakness in consumer spending, raising doubts about the strength of 2nd Quarter GDP growth.
Business inventories, rose 0.3% in May, while a sales increase of 0.4% kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.36.
Iran, agreement, blah, blah, blah … we’ll talk about it when all of the details come out rather than the preferred ones.
The earth is 15 years from a “mini ice-age” that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.
Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun’s activity which they claim produces “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”.
They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.
Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid “effectively cancel each other out”, according to Prof Valentina Zharkova.
The article goes on to tell you why, given these two waves and their position at the time, these scientists are “97%” sure their prediction is accurate.
Yes, it’s that big, hot yellow thing that hangs in the sky each day that seems to be driving our climate and not some trace gas as some scientists would have us believe.
Speaking of those “scientists”, I found this the other day and, well, had a little chortle:
Every year brings a new batch of data regarding the progression and likely effects of climate change, and the results are almost always worse than previous models had predicted. In fact, they’re frankly terrifying: rapid and accelerating deterioration of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets that will yield massive sea-level rise and submerge coastal cities; paralyzing drought on continental interiors that will lead to Dust Bowl–style famine; and incredibly powerful floods and storms that happen more frequently — five times as often now, in fact, as in the 1970s.
Most of the worst predicted outcomes will occur down the road. In the meantime, though, the people making these predictions — climate scientists — are dealing with a heavy psychological toll, as a piece in Esquire by John H. Richardson points out. They are living, as Richardson puts it, a “surreal existence.”
One psychologist who works with climate scientists told Richardson they suffer from “pre-traumatic stress,” the overwhelming sense of anger, panic, and “obsessive-intrusive thoughts” that results when your work every day is to chart a planetary future that looks increasingly apocalyptic. Some climatologists merely report depression and feelings of hopelessness. Others, resigned to our shared fate, have written what amount to survival guides for a sort of Mad Max dystopian future where civilization has broken down under the pressures of resource scarcity and habitat erosion.
The alarmists are dealing with psychological problems.
You have to wonder if it because the “big lie” they’ve been pushing for so many years is collapsing like a wet cardboard box? Or it’s just the wages of “true belief”, regardless of what other scientists are saying (with “97%” accuracy).
They don’t get a couple of things.
When Army Sgt. Patrick Hart decided a decade ago that he would not serve in the war in Iraq, he expected to follow the same path as thousands of American war resisters during the Vietnam era and take refuge across the border.
But after five years of wrangling with the Canadian immigration system, he came back to the U.S. — and ended up in a military prison.
Of course, Hart swore this oath at his enlistment and any re-enlistment he did:
I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”
When your service is contingent upon that voluntary agreement, via oath, to fight all enemies “both foreign and domestic” and “to obey the orders” of those placed above you in your chain of command, you don’t get to decide who the enemies are or what orders you’ll obey. And if you do make a decision not to fight a particular enemy or obey a particular order, then you must also be willing to stand up and suffer the consequences of your principled stand. Not run and hide.
Yes, there are illegal orders and it is your duty to disobey them – and then stand your ground and ride out the aftermath. Same with refusing to fight. Do so and stand there and take the consequences.
But when you voluntarily take an oath such as the armed forces requires, you better think seriously about what those words mean before you utter them and then sign your name to them. As mentioned, this is a volunteer military. No one makes you go in, no one makes you swear the oath, etc. And nowhere does the oath allow caveats on who or what you may or may not fight.
So, knowing that, I have little to no sympathy for prisoner Hart. He got what he deserved and I’m quite happy to see that Canada gets the difference. Apparently some other folks don’t:
Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has not committed to letting the resisters stay, but many are buoyed by his family history. It was his father, Pierre Trudeau, who while prime minister during the Vietnam War said Canada should be “a refuge from militarism.”
“Why not do it again? It’s only a couple of dozen people,” said Michelle Robidoux, spokeswoman for the War Resisters Support Campaign in Toronto, which has been lobbying members of Parliament.
The difference between the military of the Vietnam era and the military of today is summed up quickly: draft army vs. volunteer army. You can actually have some sympathy for those who fled to Canada during that era instead of doing something they were “press ganged” into doing or didn’t believe in. For most, no oath was involved and they hadn’t volunteered for anything.
“Why not do it again?” Because these people deserting now are deserting a voluntary commitment that suddenly became inconvenient for them. They voluntarily swore an oath and now, instead of fulfilling it, they’re cutting and running. That’s why you don’t do it “again”?
It’s up on the podcast page. You won’t want to miss the engaging story about Dale’s testicles.