It has always been a smoke and mirrors show, but now we’re beginning to see through it to the truth of the matter. At the GOP’s request, the CBO confirms what I and many others have been saying for quite some time:
Contrary to recent claims, the Democratic health care overhaul will increase Federal deficits by at least $59 billion, and more likely $260 billion, over the next 10 years.
New analysis from the Congressional Budget Office [CBO] provided at the request of House Budget Ranking Republican Paul Ryan, indicates that including the “doc fix” in the Majority’s health care overhaul adds $208 billion to the cost of the bill, increasing the deficit by $59 billion over the next 10 years.
In response to a question regarding passage of the doc fix, Speaker Pelosi said “it’s not in this bill but we’ll have it soon. We’ve made a commitment to do this.”
The fact that they intended to repeal the law cutting fees to doctors isn’t a secret and hasn’t been a secret. As I said, the Senator from Louisiana talked about a permanent fix last night on Fox News. But she tried to dodge the question about why it wasn’t included in the health care bill when it certainly is a large chunk of the future cost.
The reason of course is obvious. Not that it is going to change what will probably happen on Sunday. But it is clear, regardless of the spin, regardless of the hype and despite the promises and hoopla – this monstrosity is going to add to the debt.
Of course, how could it not – more insured, no payment caps, no pre-existing conditions? How could any rational person actually conclude it would cost less?
And after 2019? Well, dealing in reality and removing some of the historically unrealistic assumptions which Democrats built into the bill to reach their number yields an entirely different outcome, as you might expect:
Removing these assumptions reveals a stark reality. If these assumed savings are never realized – as is the likely scenario – CBO projects that rather than reducing the deficit in the years beyond 2019, the deficit would increase over the decade following 2019 “in a broad range around one-quarter percent of GDP.” Using the Majority’s own methodology, this amounts to a second decade deficit of $600 billion.
Bendin’ that cost curve down, boss. Bendin’ it down …
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