The initial estimate for 3rd Quarter 2014 GDP came in at 3.5% annualized, led by personal consumption expenditures. The GDP price index rose at 1.3% annualized.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 3,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 281,000. Continuing claims rose 29,000 to 2.384 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.5 points to 37.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $5.1 billion last week, with total assets of 4.536 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $14.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $42.5 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -7.0%.
The FOMC Meeting ended today, with the announcement that interest rates would remain unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC characterized the economy as “expanding at a moderate pace”, and the job market as “improving”.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.3%, and rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.4% on a year-ago basis.
September durable goods orders fell for the second straight month, down -1.3% overall, and -0.2% ex-transportation. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 3.3% and orders excluding transportation are up 7.3%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for August fell -0.1%, contracting for the fourth straight month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 5.6%.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for October rose to 94.5, the highest since October 2007.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 6 points to 20 in October.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index came in at 115.1, compared to September’s especially strong reading of 123.9.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped -0.3 points in October to a still-strong 10.5, while the production index fell -3.9 points to 13.7.
Market’s PMI Services Flash for October fell -1.2 points to 57.3.
The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.3 points to 105.0 in September.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.5 points to 37.7 in the latest week.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 17,000 to 283,000. The 4-week average fell 3,000 to 281,000, a 14-year low. Continuing claims fell 38,000 to 2.351 million.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose strongly from -0.21 to 0.47 in September.
The FHFA purchase only house price index rose 0.5% in August.
The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for October fell -1.7 points from the final September reading to 56.2.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell -2 points to 4 in October.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $15.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-39.3 billion in the latest week.
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in September at both the headline and core rates of the CPI. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.7%, again at both the core and headline levels.
The MBA reports that, thanks to falling lending rates, mortgage applications rose a sharp 11.6% last week, with purchases down -5.0% but refis up 23.0%.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales were weak, falling -0.3%, and rising only 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook, conversely, reports retail sales rose 4.1% on a year-ago basis.
Existing home sales rose a solid 2.4% in September, hitting an annualized 5.17 million rate, which was better than expected.
Housing starts for September rebounded 6.3% after August’s 12.8% drop. The pace was at 1.017 million units, topping expectations.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 1.8 points to 86.4 in the October preliminary reading.
The Fed’s Beige Book report indicates economic growth—again—is modest to moderate. Slowing inflation and weak growth overseas is spurring concern about slower economic growth. There is even talk, based on this report, of another new round of Quantitative Easing.
Reinforcing the Fed’s concerns, Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.1% in September, while prices less food and gas—the so-called “core rate”—were unchanged. The PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services also fell 0.1%. Goods prices fell -0.2% and services prices fell -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD is up 1.6% at the headline level and 1.8% at the core.
The Treasury reports that a revenue surplus of $105.8 billion in September pushed the FY2014 deficit down to $483.4 billion from $680.2 billion in FY2013.
The October Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey shows that businesses expect 1.9% inflation over the next year. This is down from 2.1% in the previous month.
The Empire State manufacturing index for October fell sharply to 6.17 from September’s 5-year high of 27.54.
September retail sales fell a worse-than-expected -0.3% in September. Sales less autos fell -0.2% and sales less autos and gas fell -0.1%. Analysts expected an overall increase of 0.3%.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 5.6% last week, with purchases down -1.0% but refis up 11.0%.