Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

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Economic Statistics for 26 Nov 14

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -4.3% last week, with purchases down -10.0% and refis down -4.0%.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 21,000 to 313,000. The 4-week average rose 6,250 to 294,000X. Continuing claims fell 17,000 to 2.316 million.

October durable goods orders rose 0.4%, almost entirely on a 45.3% increase in defense aircraft orders, without which, orders actually fell by a sharp -0.9%. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 5.5%, and ex-transportation orders are up 6.4%.

Both personal income and spending rose 0.2% in October, while the PCE Price index rose 0.1% at the headline level and 0.2% at the core.

The Chicago PMI fell -5.4 points in November to a still-strong 60.8.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2.2 points last week to 40.7, the highest level since December 2007.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell -0.6 points to 88.8 in November.

New home sales in October came in at a weaker-than-expected 458,000 annual rate.

The pending home sales index fell -1.1% to 104.1 in October.


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Economic Statistics for 25 Nov 14

GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter was revised upwards unexpectedly, coming in at 3.9% annualized. The GDP Price index was also revised upwards slightly to 1.4%.

Corporate profits in the 3rd Quarter came in at $1.873 trillion, following $1.842 trillion for the 2nd Quarter. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell -5.8 points to 88.7 in November.

FHFA House Price Index was unchanged in September. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 4.3%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.3% in September, and is up 4.9% from a year ago.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index declined sharply from 20 to 4 in November.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell -1.1 points to 114.0 in November. 

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 2.2%, but on only rose 1.7% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.2% on a year-ago basis.


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Economic Statistics for 20 Nov 14

Consumer prices were unchanged at the headline level in October, while prices less food and energy rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 1.7%, while the core rate is up 1.8%.

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for November is down 1.8 points from October’s final reading, coming in at 54.7.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey surged a spectacular 20.1 points to 40.8, contrasting wildly with the falling PMI Manufacturing flash.

Existing home sales rose 1.5% in October to a 5.260 million annual rate.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose a very strong 0.9% in October, following September’s 0.8% increase.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 2,000 to 291,000. The 4-week average rose 2,500 to 287,500. Continuing claims fell 73,000 to 2.330 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.3 points to 38.5 in the latest week, the highest since January, 2008.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $3.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.493 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $14.8 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $63.5 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Nov 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.2%, and rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports retail sales rose 3.9% on a year-ago basis.

Final demand producer prices rose 0.2% overall in October, while prices less food and energy rose 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD is up 1.5% at the headline level, and up 1.7% at the core. In October, goods prices declined -0.4% while services prices rose 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, both goods and services prices have risen 1.6%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 3 points in November to 58.0.

E-commerce retail sales for the 3rd Quarter of 2014 rose 4.0%, compared to 4.9% in the previous quarter.

Very heavy foreign buying resulted in a net inflow of $164.3 billion in long term US securities in September.


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Economic Statistics for 14 Nov 14

October retail sales were up 0.3% overall. Sales less autos were up 0.3% as well, while sales less autos and gas rose 0.6%.

Export prices fell -1.0% on October, while import prices fell -1.3%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices have fallen -0.8%, while import prices have fallen -1.8%. Cross-border prices are clearly deflationary, and are beginning to feed into the price of finished goods. With interest rates already at 0%, it’s difficult to see what monetary policy measures are available to counteract this trend. 

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is up 2.5 points t0 39.4 for November’s preliminary reading. This is the highest level for the index since 2007.

Business inventories rose 0.3% in September, while flat sales left the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.30.


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Economic Statistics for 13 Nov 14

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.1 points to 38.2 in the latest week.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 290,000. The 4-week average rose 6,000 to 285,000. Continuing claims rose 36,000 to 2.373 million.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of September.

The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for October shows the new fiscal year starting with a deficit of $-127.1 billion.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.3 billion last week, with total assets of 4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $2.448 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-65.7 billion in the latest week.


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