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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 24 Dec 14

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week, with purchases and refis both up 1.0%.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 to 280,000. The 4-week average fell 8,500 to 290,250. Continuing claims  rose 25,000 to 2.403 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 43.1 in the latest week, the highest reading since October, 2007.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Dec 14

ICSC-Goldman reports strong weekly retail sales, rising 3.4% for the week, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports same-store weekly retail sales surged 5.3% on a year-ago basis.

Durable goods orders for November dropped -0.7%, far below expectations, while ex-transportation orders fell -0.4%. On a year-over year basis, durables orders are up only 0.3%, though ex-transportation orders are up 3.9%. 

GDP for the 3rd Quarter of 2014 was revised sharply higher in this final revision, to a 5.0% annualized rate, significantly higher than expected. The GDP price deflator, an inflation measure, was unchanged at 1.4%, annualized.

Corporate after-tax profits in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 were $1.895 trillion, following $1.842 trillion for the 2nd Quarter. 

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.6% in October, and is up 4.5% from a year ago.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was little changed for December, falling just -0.2 points to 93.6.

Personal income rose 0.4% in November, while personal spending rose 0.6%. On a year over year basis, income is up 4.2% while spending is up 4.0%. The PCE price index fell -0.2%, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 1.2% overall, and 1.4% at the core level.

November new home sales fell -1.6% to a lower-than-expected 438,000 annual rate. Also, price data show weakness with the median price falling -3.2% to $280,000.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to 7 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 18 Dec 14

Markit’s PMI services flash for December fell -2.7 points from the final November reading to 53.6.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey fell to a very strong 24.5 in December, from November’s unusually high 40.8.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in December, following November’s 0.9% gain.

Initial weekly jobless claims  6,000 to 289,000. The 4-week average fell 500 to 298,750. Continuing claims fell 147,000 to 2.373 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.4 points to 41.7 in the latest week, hitting a 7-year high.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $13.4 billion last week, with total assets of 4.502 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $16.1 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $5.3 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 17 Dec 14

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.3% last week, with purchases down -7.0% and refis unchanged.

Consumer prices fell -0.3% overall in November, while the CPI less food and energy rose 0.1%. On a year over year basis, the CPI is up 1.3%, while the core rate is up 1.7%.

The nation’s current account deficit widened by $1.9 billion to $-100.3 billion in the 3rd Quarter from a slightly revised $98.4 billion in the 2nd Quarter. 

The Federal Open Markets Committee ended their meeting today, with the Fed Funds Rate target left unchanged at 0% to 0.25%.

The FOMC’s newest GDP forecasts: 2014: 2.3 to 2.4%; 2015: 2.6 to 3.0%; 2016: 2.5 to 3.0%; 2017: 2.3 to 2.5%; longer run: 2.0 to 2.2%. Essentally, sub-par economic growth will continue for as long as can be forecast.


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Economic Statistics for 16 Dec 14

ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 3.0%, but fell to a weak 1.1% on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, Redbook reports retail sales rose 4.2% on a year-ago basis.

Housing starts fell -1.6% in November, erasing most of October’s 1.7% increase, as starts fell to a 1.028 million annual rate. Similarly, building permits, an indicator of future activity, slipped -5.2%, following a 5.9% jump in October. 

The Markit PMI manufacturing index flash for December fell -1.0 points to 53.7.


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Economic Statistics for 15 Dec 14

The Empire State manufacturing index for December fell more than 13 points to -3.58, the first negative reading since January, 2013.

November industrial production rose 1.3%, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories rose 0.9% to 80.1%.

The Housing Market Index fell 1 point in December, to a still-solid 57.

Foreign demand for long-term US securities fell slightly in October, down $-1.4 billion, following September’s $164.3 billion gain.


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Economic Statistics for 12 Dec 14

Producer Prices for Final Demand fell -0.2% in November, while prices less food and gas were unchanged. Goods prices fell -0.7% while prices for services rose 0.1%. PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services was also unchanged. The decline in goods prices was led mainly by falling energy prices. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI-FD rose 1.4%, while prices less food and energy rose 1.7% and prices less food, energy & trade services rose 1.6%. Goods prices are up 0.4% and services prices rose 1.9%.

The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped a full 5 points to 93.8 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 11 Dec 14

November retail sales were stronger than expected, rising 0.7% overall, 0.5% less gas, and 0.6% less gas and autos.

Export prices fell -1.0% in November, while import prices fell -1.5%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices are down -1.9% while import prices are down -2.3%.

Business inventories rose 0.2% in October, while business sales fell -0.1%. The stock-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.30.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 3,000 to 294,000. The 4-week average rose 250 to 299,250. Continuing claims rose 142,000 to 2.514 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose points to a seven-year high of 41.3 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.8 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $35.6 billion in the latest week.


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