Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 5 Jan 15

December auto sales fell a sharp -5.0% to an annualized 17.3 million, hinting at a bad month for retail sales, overall.

December’s economic confidence index from Gallup averaged -11 in December, up from November’s -13.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 2.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 2.5%. Still not great numbers.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Jan 15

The PMI Manufacturing Index fell -1.6 points to 51.3 in December.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell another -0.4% in December to 48.2, the lowest reading since July, 2009.

Construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.4% in November, but the year-on-year gain is still at 10.5%.

Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure rose from a daily average of $92 to $99 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 31 Dec 15

The Chicago PMI plunged -5.8 points to a recessionary 42.9. I suspect the national PMI will be significantly better, though.

Initial weekly jobless claims jumped 20,000 to 287,000. The 4-week average rose 4,500 to 277,000. Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 2.198 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 1.4 points to 43.6 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-9.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.487 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.1 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $53.1 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 29 Dec 15

November’s international trade goods deficit narrowed to $-60.5 billion from the revised $-63.0 billion in October. Exports fell -2.0%, while imports fell -1.8%.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose to 108.3, up 1.0 point from November’s revised reading of 107.3. 

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose 6.1 points in December to 96.5.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.9% in October, and is up 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 2.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.8%.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Dec 15

November durable goods orders were unchanged—which counts as good news now, I guess—while ex-transportation orders fell -0.1%, and core capital goods orders fell -0.4%. On a year-over year basis, Durables orders rose 1.2% overall, but ex-transportation orders fell -1.9% and core capital goods orders fell -1.8%.

Both personal income and spending rose 0.3% in November, while the PCE Price Index was unchanged overall, and up 0.1% at the core. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.4% overall, and 1.3% ex-food and -energy.

New home sales rose 4.3% in November to what is still a lower-than-expected annualized rate of 490,000.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.8 points to 92.6 in December.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 7.3% last week, with purchases up 4.0% and refis up 11.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 22 Dec 15

The final revision of 3rd Quarter GDP came in at 2.0% annualized growth, down -0.1% from the 2nd revision. The GDP Price index was unchanged at 1.3%.

Corporate profits in the 3rd Quarter were revised to $1.784 trillion, up a year-on-year 1.3%, down from the initial revision’s 1.4%.

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.5% in October, which is up 6.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Existing home sales plunged -10.5% in November, to a much lower-than-expected annualized rate of 4.760 million. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down -3.8%.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed back into positive territory in December, rising from -3 to 6.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose only to 1.8% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.5%. Sales have been consistently weak this holiday season.


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Economic Statistics for 17 Dec 15

The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey fell back into negative territory again, facing 6 points to -5.9 in December.

The US current account deficit grew sharply in the 3rd quarter, to $-124.1 billion from a revised $-111.1 billion in the 2nd quarter.

The Conference Board’s Index of leading Indicators rose by 0.4% in November.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 11,000 to 271,000. The 4-week average fell 250 to 270,500. Continuing claims fell 7,000 to 2.238 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.8 points to 40.9 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $9.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.490 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $12.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $15.4 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 16 Dec 15

The Federal Open Markets Committee raised the Fed Funds rate target to 0.25%-0.5%, and the Discount Rate to 1.0%. This is the first interest rate increase in over eight years.

The Fed’s forecast for inflation and economic growth was released today. Subpar growth remains for as far as can be foreseen.

Rates

November housing starts rose 10.5% to a 1.173 million annual rate, while building permits rose 11.0% to a 1.289 million annual rate.

Industrial production fell -0.6% in November, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.5% to 77.0%.

The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash fell -0.9 points to 51.3 in November.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -1.1% last week, with purchases down -3.0% and refis up 1.0%.


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