Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 15 Dec 15

Consumer prices were unchanged overall in November, and rose 0.2% ex-food and -energy. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 0.5%, and up 2.0% ex-food and -energy.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose more than 5 points, but remained negative at -4.59% for December.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.9%.

The Housing Market Index fell -1 point in December, to 61.

Foreign demand for U.S. long-term securities fell by $-16.6 billion, primarily from the net $-50.2 billion sold by foreign investors.


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Economic Statistics for 10 Dec 15

November import prices fell -0.4%, and export prices fell -0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, prices are down -9.4% for imports and -6.3% for exports.

The Census Bureau quarterly services survey shows information revenue rose 0.7% in the 3rd Quarter, and is up 3.7%, year-over-year.

Rising Medicare expenses helped sent the government’s budget to a $-64.6 billion deficit in November. The fiscal year deficit to date is now up 12.6% over the same period last year.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 13,000 to 282,000. The 4-week average rose 1,500 to 270,750. Continuing claims rose 82,000 to 2.243 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.5 points to 40.1 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.480 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.5 billion. Clearly, the Fed has stopped the Quantitative easing, and its balance sheet has topped off. We continue to monitor this report for indications of monetary tightening through selling the Fed’s current top-heavy portfolio of securities.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-38.8 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 8-9 Dec 15

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points in November to 94.8.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell back to a weak 1.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s Black Friday-induced 3.9%.

The Labor Dept’s JOLTS report fell substantially, as job openings fell from 5.562 million in September to 5.383 million in October.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 1.2% last week, with purchases up only 0.04% but refis up 4.0%.

Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% in October, while no change for sales kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.31. 


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Economic Statistics for 7 Dec 15

Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure reports that Americans’ daily, self-reported spending was unchanged at $92 in November.

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index fell from 1.6 to 0.5 in November.

Consumer credit rose $16.0 billion in October, but revolving credit rose only at a barely-positive $0.2 billion. Non-revolving credit gains were mainly in auto and school loans.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Dec 15

211,000 net new jobs were created in November, as the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%. The bar force participation rate increased by 0.1% to 62.5%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, while the average workweek remained unchanged at 34.5 hours.

The nation’s trade deficit increased from $-40.8 billion in September to $-43.9 billion in October.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Dec 15

Chain stores are posting slightly better year-on-year sales rates in November, hinting at better news in the government’s official report.

Challenger’s count of layoff announcements fell nearly -20,000 in November to 30,953 for the lowest reading since September, 2014.

The Gallup Good Jobs Rate for November fell -0.4% to 44.9%.

Factory orders bounced back from September’s -1.0% drop, coming in with an increase of 1.5% in October.

The PMI Services Index rose 1.3 points to 56.1 in November. Conversely, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell -3.2 points to 55.9.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 269,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 269,250. Continuing claims rose 6,000 to 2.161 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to 39.6 in the latest week, the fifth drop in six weeks.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $1.0 billion last week, with total assets of $4.478 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-11.4 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $19.8 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Dec 15

Automobiles fairly flew off the dealers’ lots in November, as auto sales rose to a 18.2 million annual pace, a 12-year high.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 3.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s weak 1.5%. Thanks, Black Friday!

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed from 54.1 to 52.8 in November.

The ISM Manufacturing Index slowed from a barely positive 50.1 to a contractionary 48.6 in November.

Construction pending rose a solid 1.0% in October, and is up 13.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index remained unchanged at 013 in November.


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Economic Statistics for 30 Nov 15

The Chicago PMI plunged from 56.2 to 48.7 in November. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, but this is a volatile index.

Pending home sales rose only 0.2% in October to 107.7, reflecting soft home sales.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey improved, but still remained in negative territory in November, rising from -12.7 to -4.9.


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Economic Statistics for 24-25 Nov 15

It’s a massive set of statistical releases, as the Thanksgiving holidays have compressed the week’s releases into the day before the holiday. Without further ado, therefore…

The first revision to 3rd Quarter GDP added 0.6%, coming to a 2.1% annualized rate of growth. The GDP Price Index was revised up to 1.3%.

The nation’s trade gap in goods came in at a lower-than-expected deficit of $58.4 billion in October. 

Corporate profits in the 3rd Quarter were revised to $1.786 trillion, up a year-on-year 1.4%.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 1.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.2%, as sales weakness continues.

The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index rose 0.6% in September, and is up 5.5% from the previous year.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index sank from 97.6 to 90.4 in November, on weak confidence in the jobs market.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index dropped -2 points to -3 in November.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index dropped -7.5 points to 106.8 in November.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.2% last week, with purchases down -1.0% and refis down -5.0%.

Durable goods orders rose 3.0% in October, mainly on aircraft orders coming out of the Dubai air show, but the previous several months of decline means orders are only up 0.5% from last year. Ex-transportation orders rose 0.5%, but are down -2.4% from a year ago. Core capital goods rose 1.3% and are up 0.4% from last year.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 12,000 to 260,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 271,000. Continuing claims rose 34,000 to 2.207 million.

Personal Income rose 0.4% in October, while spending rose 0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.1% overall, but was unchanged, ex-food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.2% at the headline level, and 1.3% at the core.

The FHFA House Price Index for September rose 0.8%, increasing in all nine regions of the country.

The PMI Services Flash for November rose 2.1 points to 56.5.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 40.9 in the latest week.

Following the previous month’s -12.9% drop, new home sales in October rose 10.7% to a 495,000 annual rate.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -1.8 points to 91.3 for November.


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