I missed yesterday’s stats, since I was building the new site. So, let’s catch up.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.7% last week. Purchases were down -1.0% and re-fis fell -4.0%.
July retail sales were unchanged in July. retail sales less autos, and retail sales less autos and gas both rose 0.1%.
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey for July reports businesses expect unit costs to rise 2.0% in the next 12 months.
June business inventories rose 0.4%, but a weaker 0.3% sales increase left the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.29.
Weekly initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 311,000. The 4-week average rose 2,250 to 295,750. Continuing claims rose 25,000 to 2.544 million.
Import prices fell -0.2% in July, while export prices were unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, import prices rose 1.0% while export prices rose 0.4%.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose for the first time in three weeks, up 0.6 points to 36.8 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $21.8 billion last week, with total assets of $4.432 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $11.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply shrank by $-34.4 billion in the latest week.
The NFIB small business optimism index rose 0.7 points in July to 95.7.
The government’s budget deficit, as of the end of July, is running 24% below last year, at $460.5 billion vs. $607.4 billion.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales down -1.4%, and were up only 3.2% on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, Redbook reports a strong 4.8% increase in retail sales over last year.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell 14,000 to 289,000. The 4-week average fell 3,750 to 293,500. Continuing claims fell 24,000 to 2.518 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.1 points to 36.2.
Consumer credit rose $17.3 billion in June mainly driven by the nonrevolving component, which rose $16.3 billion.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $3.5 billion with total assets of $4.410 trillion. Reserve Bank credit rose $1.9 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money supply rose $29.2 billion in the latest week.
The US trade deficit narrowed for the second straight month, down $-44.1 billion, the May drop of $-44.7 billion. Imports declined -1.2%.
Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index for July rose 1 point to 28, the highest level in more than six years.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 1.6% last week. Purchases were down -1.0% but re-fis rose 4.0%.
June factory orders rose a generally strong 1.1%, led by a big 3.3 percent jump for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
The non-manufacturing ISM index rose 2.7 points in July to 58.7.
The JP Morgan Global composite PMI for July rose a slight 0.1 points to 55.5. The Global Services PMI rose 0.2 points to 56.0.
US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index fell -0.2 points to 60.8 in July.
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index fell -2 points to -17 in July.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales rose 0.2%, and were up a strong 4.5% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook also reports a strong 4.6% rise in retail sales over last year.
In July, 209,000 net new jobs were created as the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.2%. Weekly earnings were unchanged, as were weekly hours at 34.5. The labor force participation rate increased 0.1% to 62.9%. The real rate of unemployment, assuming a historical average labor force participation rate of 66.2%, is 10.86%, down more than -2% since the 12.03% rate of October 2013.
Both personal income and spending rose 0.4% in June, while the PCE price index rose 0.2%. The core PCE price index rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 1.6% at the headline level and 1.5% at the core.
The Markit PMI manufacturing flash index for July slowed by -1.5 points to 55.8.
The July global manufacturing PMI edged down to a reading of 52.5 from the revised June reading of 52.6.
The July ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.8 points to 57.1.
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for July rose 0.5 points to 81.8.
Construction spending unexpectedly fell -1.8% in June. On a year-over-year basis, spending is up 5.5%.
The employment cost index rose 0.7% in the 2nd Quarter of 2014, versus a record low 0.3% rise in Q1.
Challenger reports that the 18,000 layoff announcement from Microsoft inflated the July layoff count to 46,887 vs. 31,434 in June.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index plunged 10.0 points to 52.6 in July. This is a volatile index, however.
Gallup’s July Payroll to Population employment rate was stable at 45.1%, rising just 0.1% for the month.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to 36.3 in the latest week, the lowest level in two months.
Weekly initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 302,000. The 4-week average fell 2,750 to 297,250. Continuing claims rose 31,000 to 2.539 million.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-4.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.407 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $-0.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $23.5 billion in the latest week.
The Commerce Department’s initial GDP estimate for 2Q 2014 came in at a 4.0% annualized rate of growth. The GDP price index rose at an annualized 2.0%. The Commerce Department says the high growth in the quarter is a rebound from the weather-related GDP declines in 1Q.
The Federal Open Markets Committee met today, and left interest rates unchanged, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0.0%-0.25%.
ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth in July is 218,000 jobs. Econoday’s analyst consensus is a bit higher at 235,000.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.2% last week. Purchases rose 0.2% but re-fis fell -4.0%.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales up 0.2%, and were up 4.6% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports a 3.0% rise in retail sales over last year.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index continued to fall in May, down -0.3% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 9.3%, however.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is moving steadily to new recovery highs, to 90.9 in July.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell to 114.7 in July from a revised 119.3 in June.