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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 13 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Initial jobless claims fell 29,000 last week, to 343,000. The 4-week moving average fell 27,000 to 381,500. Continuing claims fell 23,000 to 3.271 million.

The producer price index in November fell -0.8%. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI is up 1.4%, while the core PPI is up 2.2%.

Retail sales rose 0.3% overall in November, while sales ex-autos were unchanged, and sales ex-autos and gas rose 0.7%.

Business Inventories rose 0.4% in October, but falling sales pushed the stock to sales ratio up to 1.29.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell another -0.7 points to -34.0.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 12 Dec 12 (Updated)

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 6.2% last week, with purchases up 1.0% and refinancings up 8.0%.

Export prices fell -0.7% in November, but are up 0.7% over last year. Import prices fell -0.9% for the month, and are down -1.6% Year-over-year.

The Fed announced after the FOMC meeting this afternoon that short-term interest rates would remain close to 0% unless unemployment declines to 6.5%. They also said that the $85 billion a month in bond buys would continue. Gold rose more than $6.00 immediately after the announcement. Crude oil futures rose as well.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 11 Dec 12

Following a quiescent Monday, the us economic calendar kicks off this week with the following statistics:

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a 2.2% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales decline of -0.7%, and a 2.5% increase on a year-over-year basis. Sales growth has been slow for two straight weeks, and analysts say consumers are awaiting the final round of pre-holiday bargains before buying.

The U.S. international trade gap in October widened to $-42.2billion as exports declined.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November fell a steep 5.6 points to 87.5, going deeper into recessionary territory.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in October, with an unexpected -1.2% drop in sales, leaving a stock-to-sales ratio at a troubling 1.22.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 7 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Monster Employment index rose 2 points to 158 in November.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index a very steep 8.2 points to 74.5.

Nonfarm payroll employment in November increased by a lackluster 146,000 new jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, as 350,000 workers left the labor force, bringing the labor force participation rate back down to 63.6. At the historical rate of labor participation, the unemployment rate would actually have jumped by 0.2% to 11.4%. In all, the labor market remains moribund, as job creation remains weak and labor force participation remains at historic lows.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 6 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index eased down -0.8 points to -33.8.

The Census Bureau’s quarterly information services survey reports that rose 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, up 2.1% On a year-over-year basis.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report indicates that November layoff announcements rose to 57,081 from 47,724 in October.

Initial claims for unemployment fell 25,000 last week, to 370,000. The 4-week moving average rose 3,000 to 408,000. Continuing claims fell 100,000 to 3.205 million. The weekly drop is being taken as an indication that all the Hurricane Sandy-related jobless claims have been fully unwound.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 5 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 4.5% last week, with purchases up 0.1% and refinancings up 6.0%.

The ADP Employment Report is forecasting a rise of 118,000 net new jobs in November, down from 157,000 in October.

Nonfarm productivity was revised up to a 2.9% annualized rate for the 3rd quarter, while unit labor costs fell -1.9%.

Factory orders rose a stronger-than-expected 0.8% in October, and ex-transportation orders were up and even stronger 1.3%.

The ISM Non-Mfg Index shows activity picking up, as it increased nearly a full point to 54.7. 

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 3 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Construction spending rose 1.4% in October, and was up 9.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Vehicle sales have been coming in strong today, with domestic sales at an annualized 11.7 million. Overall vehicle sales are set to top 15 million, the best rate since the 15.5 million annualized in February, 2008. Ford, Honda, and Nissan are posting better sales than expected, while GM sales are weaker than expected.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index rose 0.7 points to 52.8, indicating increased manufacturing growth.

In contrast, the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped sharply from 51.7 to a weaker than expected 49.5, a below-50 reading that indicates economic contraction.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Nov 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal Income was unchanged in October, while spending fell -0.2%. Both the headline and core the PCE Price Index rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, both income and spending rose 3.1%, while inflation rose 1.7% at the headline level and 1.6% at the core level.

The Chicago Purchasing managers Index is essentially unchanged for November, up 0.1 points to 50.4, indicating barely any growth.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Nov 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Chain stores are reporting mostly lower sales growth for November, as weak sales early in the month wasn’t offset by stronger sales later.

Initial claims for unemployment fell 23,000 last week, to 393,000. The 4-week moving average remains high at 405,250. Continuing claims fell 70,000 to 3.287 million.

The first revision for 3rd Quarter GDP was revised upwards substantially to 2.7% annualized, but due to inventories, not demand growth. Consumer spending and business equipment were both revised downwards. The GDP Price Deflator, an inflation measure, remained high at 2.7%, though the core rate, ex-food and energy, was revised down to 1.3%.

Corporate profits in the 3rd quarter grew to $1.752 trillion annualized, versus $1.665 trillion in the 2nd quarter.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2% to 104.8 in October.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.9 points to -33.0.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -6 in November, down from -4 in October.

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Dale Franks
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