The US trade deficit widened a bit from an unexpectedly low July deficit to $-38.8 billion in August.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash fell -1.7 points to 51.1 in October.
Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 last week, to 350,000. The 4-week moving average rose 11,750 to 348,250, Continuing claims rose 35,000 to 2.847 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -2 points to -36.1 last week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $25.4 billion last week, with total assets of $3.839 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $20.4 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $28.8 billion last week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.6% last week, with purchases up 1.0% and refinancings down -1.0%.
Import and export prices both rose in September, by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Both were down on a year-over year basis, with import prices down -1.0% and export prices down -1.6%.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% in August, putting it up 8.5% year-over-year.
The shutdown-delayed Employment Situation for September was another bad one. The notional unemployment rate fell a notional -0.1% to a notional 7.2%. That’s all faeries and unicorns. In actuality, only 148,000 net new jobs were created. Average Earnings rose 0.1%, and the average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours. An additional 136,000 people left the labor force during the month, helping the labor force participation rate to stay unchanged at a historical low of 63.2%. One slightly more positive note is that the civilian labor force grew by 73,000 persons, while 133,000 more persons were reported as employed in September as compared to August. When the numbers all shake out, nothing much has changed, as my estimate of the real rate of unemployment is 11.45% in September, compared to 11.46% in August.
ICSC-Goldman is reporting some retail sales improvement, with weekly sales growth at 1.4%, and year-over-year growth of 3.2%. Redbook, conversely, is reporting a weaker 2.9% year-over-year growth rate.
Foreign demand for US securities is again showing softness, with the 6th net outflow in 7 months of $-8.9 billion for August. Who is it that finances our deficits by buying US securities again? Oh, right. Foreigners.
Construction spending rose 0.6% in August, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. Gains were led by residential outlays, with both multi- and single-family sectors showing strength.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose from 0 to 1 in October, as district activity remained flat.
The Housing Starts and Industrial Production reports were delayed due to the government shutdown.
Initial jobless claims fell 16,000 to 358,000. The 4-week average 11,500 to 336,500. Continuing claims fell 43,000 to 2.859 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to a nearly seven-month low of -34.1 last week.
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey fell 2.5 points to 19.8 in October.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $25.7billion last week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $54.9 billion last week, with total assets of $3.814 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $51.1 billion.
The Consumer Price Index and Treasury International Capital reports were delayed by the government shutdown.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.3% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refinancings up 3.0%.
The Housing Market Index fell 3 points to 55 in October.
The Fed’s Beige Book is still pointing at a slow recovery with economic growth continuing at a "modest to moderate" pace.
ICSC-Goldman reports a sharp 0.7% drop in sales for the week, and a weak 1.0% year-on-year sales rate. Redbook, conversely, is reporting a steady 2.3% year-on-year sales in crease.
Manufacturing is slowing in the New York Fed District, with the monthly manufacturing survey falling nearly 5 points to 1.52.
The Treasury Budget and Import/Export Prices reports have been delayed due to the government shutdown.
Chain stores reported reported today that September retail sales were mainly flat.
Initial jobless claims rose 66,000 last week, to 374,000, due to some counting issues. The 4-week moving average rose 20,000to 325,000. Continuing claims fell 16,000 to 2.905 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell 3 ticks -29.7.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $11.3 billion last week, with total assets of $3.759 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $13.7 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $50.4 billion last week.