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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 8 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a very disappointing 2.1% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales plunge of -4.2%, but a confusing 4.0% increase on a year-over-year basis, giving a very mixed picture.

Consumer credit rose strongly once again, up $16.0 billion for November, following $14.2 billion and $12.0 billion increases in October and September, respectively.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to a still very low and recessionary 88.0.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Factory Orders were unchanged in November.  Non-durable orders fell -0.6%, but on the plus side, durable orders rose 0.8%. Included in that were a sharp rise in capital goods, which suggests future spending is on the way.

The November Employment Situation indicates that there were 155,000 net new jobs created in November, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while weekly hours rose slightly to 34.5 hours. The labor force participation rate held steady at a low 63.6%. At historical labor force participation rates, the unemployment rate would be 11.41%, up from 11.23% in October.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 1.4 points to a better-than-expected 56.1.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 3 Jan 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.3 points this week to -31.8, an 8-month high.

Chain stores are reporting December sales today, and it seems to be a mixed bag, as some retailers are lowering earnings guidance, while others are raising it. Many report the month got off to a slow start, forcing retailers to offer greater discounts.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -21.6% last week, with purchases down -14.8% and refinancings down -23.3%.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows only 32,556 layoffs in December, the lowest since August.

The ADP Employment Report shows a strong 215,000 gain in private payrolls for December. We’ll see if that’s reflected in tomorrow’s Employment Situation.

Initial claims for unemployment rose 10,000 last week, to 372,000. The 4-week moving average rose 3,250 to 360,000, Continuing claims rose 44,000 to 3.245 million. The improvement last week is now gone due to a sharp revision upward 12,000  to 362,000.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 2 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a below-plan 2.9% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a relatively strong weekly sales increase of 0.6%, and a 2.7% increase on a year-over-year basis.

Construction spending in November fell -0.3%, though it was still 7.7% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The Markit Economics’ final December PMI Manufacturing Index is 54.0, up 1.2 points from November’s 52.8.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is a relatively weak 50.7 for December, but is still up more than a point from November’s 49.5.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 27 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index plunged 6.4 points this month to 65.1, as fiscal cliff worries begin besetting consumers.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell slightly from -31.9 to -32.1.

Initial claims for unemployment fell 12,000 last week, to 350,000. The 4-week moving average fell 11,250 to 356,750, Continuing claims fell 25,000 to a new recovery low of 3.219 million.

New home sales for November rose 4.4% to an annual rate of 377,000. The annual rate has risen slowly all year, from 340,000 in January.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 26 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a relatively weak 2.9% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 0.7%, and a 3.2% increase on a year-over-year basis.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in October, which is 4.3% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index declined from 9 last month, to 5 in December.

State Street’s investor confidence index rose 0.4 points to 80.9 in December. The report says confidence is "weak".

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 21 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is down nearly 10 points in December to 72.9  from last month’s 82.7.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index turned positive, coming in at 0.10 vice a revised -0.64 in October.

Personal income in October was up 0.6%, following a flat October. Consumer spending rose 0.4%, compared to a -0.2% drop in October. For inflation, the PCE price index fell -0.2% while the core rate was unchanged. On a year-over-year basis, income is up 4.1% while spending is up 3.5%; the PCE is up 1.4% at the headline level and 1.5% at the core.

Durable goods orders in November rose 0.7%, while ex-transportation orders were up 1.6%. This is the second consecutive monthly increase.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index fell to -6 in November from -4 in October.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 20 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The index of leading indicators fell -0.2% in November, as expected, due mainly to temporary, Sandy-related weakness in employment.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to an eight month high of -31.9 from -34.5.

Initial claims for unemployment rose 17,000 last week, to 361,000. The 4-week moving average fell 14,000 to 367,750. Continuing claims rose 12,000 to 3.225 million.

Corporate profits in the third quarter rose 17.9% to $1.742 trillion annualized.

Existing home sales rose 5.9% to a much better than expected 5.04 million annual rate.

Philadelphia Fed Survey took a big jump back into positive territory, rising to 8.1 from last month’s -10.7.

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.5% in October, which is up 5.6% on a year-over-year basis.

3rd quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized 3.1% in the final estimate, a big change from the initial 2.0% estimate. A big change. The GDP price index, an inflation measure, rose 2.7%.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 19 Dec 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

November housing starts came in at a slightly les than expected 0.861 million pace, but building permits rose 3.6 percent to an annual pace of 0.899 million.

The MBA reports that higher interest rates made mortgage applications plunge -12.3% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refinancings down -14.0%. An increase in mortgage rates caused the drop in activity.

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Dale Franks
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