Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 5 Oct 12

Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:

The Monster Employment Index fell three points in September to 153, indicating a slowdown in inline recruitment.

The Employment Situation report indicates that 114,000 net new jobs were created in September. The unemployment rate fell 0.3% to 7.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while the average workweek increased by 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours. The drop in the unemployment rate is statistically questionable, as it indicates that 873,000 people found jobs in a month when only 114,000 net new jobs were created. That just didn’t happen. We’d have noticed if a million people went back to work in a single month. Finally, payrolls for the last two months were revised upwards substantially, with last month’s payroll jobs revised from 96,000 to 141,000, and July revised up to 181,000 from 141,000. So, the last month before the election, we get a seemingly improved employment report, but expect a massive revision to today’s report next month, as this month’s household survey is clearly a statistical outlier. The U-6 unemployment rate—the broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment—stayed steady at 14.7%.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 4 Oct 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Chain store sales are reporting mainly positive results this morning, but the rate of sales growth seems to be slowing. Still, the positive reports are helping sales of chain retailers’ stock this morning.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report indicates layoffs remain near recovery lows, at 33,816 for September.

Initial claims for unemployment rose 8,000 to 367,000 last week. The 4-week average rose 1,000 to 375,000. Continuing claims continue to fall, down 13,000 to 3.285 million.

Consumers continue to become more optimistic, as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 3.3 points to -39.6.

Factory orders were down a very sharp –5.2% in August, mainly on a drop in aircraft orders. Ex-aircraft, orders actually rose 0.7%.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 3 Oct 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

ADP private payroll employment for September was estimated at a gain of 162,000, but they’ve been overstating the actual Employment Situation as released by the Labor Department. Last month, the BLS reported half the number of new jobs ADP did. So, if that holds, expect 80,000 net new jobs in Friday’s Employment Situation, which is…not good.

The MBA reports mortgage applications rose 16.6% last week, as purchases rose 4.0% and refinancings rose 20.0%, as homeowners refinanced homes at record rates to take advantage of lower mortgage rates.

The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey for September rose 1.4 points to 55.1, thanks to a big jump in the new orders component to 57.7.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 2 Oct 12 (Updated)

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

In retail sales, Redbook’s reports year on year sales growth of 2.3%, which is at the lower range of trend. ICSC-Goldman says sales fell –0.3% from last week, and are up a weak 2.4% over last year.

Auto vehicle sales will be announced throughout the day. Watch this space for updates later. So far, though, the big three are reporting. General Motors reported a 1.5% increase in September auto sales. Ford sales were down –0.1% from last year. Chrysler reports a 12% jump in sales, its best September since 2007. Overall, auto sales improved on August’s multi-year high, with total sales of 15.0 million annualized for the month. That’s a 4% improvement over August, and the highest since March, 2008.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 1 Oct 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The ISM manufacturing index rose to a better-than-expected 51.5 in September indicating modest growth in the sector.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index fell –0.4 in September to 51.1, remaining in positive growth territory.

Defying expectations for an increase, construction spending fell –0.6% in August, though it’s up 6.5% on a year-over-year basis.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 28 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal income in August advanced 0.1%, while consumer spending increased 0.5%. Headline inflation rose 0.4%, while the core rate showed a 0.1% increase. On a year –over-year basis, incomes rose 3.5%, but spending rose 3.6%. The price index rose 1.5% overall, and the core rate rose 1.6%.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 78.3 from this month’s earlier reading of 79.2.

The Chicago PMI posted at 49.7 in September, down 3.3 points from the prior month. This report is often a preview of the national PMI, due out Monday. New orders fell a steep 7.4 points, and backlog orders also fell. The steep, sudden decline in Chicago business conditions took analysts by surprise.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 27 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Durable goods orders collapsed in August, posting a –13.2% decline overall, and a –1.6% decline ex-transportation. It is the worst monthly drop in 3 1/2 years. Aircraft orders fell –101.8%.

GDP growth for the second quarter for the final revision was unexpectedly revised down to 1.3% annualized. The GDP price index rose 1.6%

The Bureau of Economic Analysis says that corporate profits in the 2nd quarter decreased to $1.665 trillion annualized, compared to $1.671 trillion in the first quarter.

Initial jobless claims for last week were down a sharp 26,000 to 359,000, while the 4-week average dropped 4,500 to 374,000. Continuing claims  fell 4,000 to 3.271 million.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index in August posted at 2 for September, down from 8 last month.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to –39.6 from –40.8 last week.

The pending home sales index fell –2.6% in August to 99.2, erasing last month’s 2.4% increase.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 25 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell 4 points to 86.9 as appetite for risk declined among institutional investors.

In retail sales, Redbook reports a 2% year-on-year sales increase. ICSC-Goldman reports an increase of 0.6% over last week, and 2.9% over last year. Both are trending slightly lower than last month.

The FHFA purchase only house price index extended a run of gains with a less than expected 0.2% rise for July, which is 3.7% over last year.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped nearly 10 points in September to 70.3.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city seasonally adjusted home price index reported a 0.4% rise in July. On a year over year basis, the index was up 1.2%.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 4, the first positive reading since May.

~
Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

Economic Statistics for 24 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Dallas Fed general business activity index improved but remained in negative territory, posting at –0.9 versus –1.6 in August. Production, however, jumped to 10.0 from 6.4 while new orders rose to 5.3 from 0.2, both pointing to future improvements in Texas business conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.87 in August from a revised -0.12 in July. This pulled the 3-month average deeper into contractionary territory, with the average falling to –0.47 from –0.26.


Dale Franks
Google+ Profile
Twitter Feed

gusgust