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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 1 Oct 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The ISM manufacturing index rose to a better-than-expected 51.5 in September indicating modest growth in the sector.

The Markit PMI manufacturing index fell –0.4 in September to 51.1, remaining in positive growth territory.

Defying expectations for an increase, construction spending fell –0.6% in August, though it’s up 6.5% on a year-over-year basis.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 28 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal income in August advanced 0.1%, while consumer spending increased 0.5%. Headline inflation rose 0.4%, while the core rate showed a 0.1% increase. On a year –over-year basis, incomes rose 3.5%, but spending rose 3.6%. The price index rose 1.5% overall, and the core rate rose 1.6%.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 78.3 from this month’s earlier reading of 79.2.

The Chicago PMI posted at 49.7 in September, down 3.3 points from the prior month. This report is often a preview of the national PMI, due out Monday. New orders fell a steep 7.4 points, and backlog orders also fell. The steep, sudden decline in Chicago business conditions took analysts by surprise.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 27 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Durable goods orders collapsed in August, posting a –13.2% decline overall, and a –1.6% decline ex-transportation. It is the worst monthly drop in 3 1/2 years. Aircraft orders fell –101.8%.

GDP growth for the second quarter for the final revision was unexpectedly revised down to 1.3% annualized. The GDP price index rose 1.6%

The Bureau of Economic Analysis says that corporate profits in the 2nd quarter decreased to $1.665 trillion annualized, compared to $1.671 trillion in the first quarter.

Initial jobless claims for last week were down a sharp 26,000 to 359,000, while the 4-week average dropped 4,500 to 374,000. Continuing claims  fell 4,000 to 3.271 million.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index in August posted at 2 for September, down from 8 last month.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to –39.6 from –40.8 last week.

The pending home sales index fell –2.6% in August to 99.2, erasing last month’s 2.4% increase.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 25 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell 4 points to 86.9 as appetite for risk declined among institutional investors.

In retail sales, Redbook reports a 2% year-on-year sales increase. ICSC-Goldman reports an increase of 0.6% over last week, and 2.9% over last year. Both are trending slightly lower than last month.

The FHFA purchase only house price index extended a run of gains with a less than expected 0.2% rise for July, which is 3.7% over last year.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped nearly 10 points in September to 70.3.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city seasonally adjusted home price index reported a 0.4% rise in July. On a year over year basis, the index was up 1.2%.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 4, the first positive reading since May.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 24 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Dallas Fed general business activity index improved but remained in negative territory, posting at –0.9 versus –1.6 in August. Production, however, jumped to 10.0 from 6.4 while new orders rose to 5.3 from 0.2, both pointing to future improvements in Texas business conditions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.87 in August from a revised -0.12 in July. This pulled the 3-month average deeper into contractionary territory, with the average falling to –0.47 from –0.26.


Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 20 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey improved to –1.9 for its September reading versus minus –7.1 in August. The improvement comes mainly from a big jump in new orders.

Initial jobless claims for last week were down 3,000 to 382,000, though this "drop" is mainly an artifact of last week’s number being revised upwards by 3,000. The 4-week average rose 2,000 to 377,750. Continuing claims fell 32,000 to 3.272 million.

The Markit PMI manufacturing flash index for September fell very slightly, down –0.4 points to 51.5, as factory activity continues to grow modestly.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to –40.8 from last week’s –42.2, continuing a long, slow, less negative trend.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators in July fell –0.1%, following last month’s rise of 0.4%, but still the third decline in the past five months.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 18 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Housing starts rose a worse-than-expected 2.3% in August to a 0.75 million annual rate, following July’s revised -2.8% drop. The August starts pace is up 29.1% on a year-ago basis.

The MBA reports mortgage applications fell -0.2% in the most recent week, with purchases down -4.0% and refinancings up 1.0%.

Existing home sales rose strongly in August, up 7.8% to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This is the second strong increase in a row, and is the highest since May 2010.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 18 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The U.S. current account deficit improved sharply to -$117.4 billion in the second quarter from a revised -$133.6 billion in the first quarter.

Net foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities rose from $9.3 billion in June to $676.0 billion in July.

The NAHB housing market index in September rose another 3 points to 40, for the fifth straight rise to the best level since early 2007.

Retail Sales: Redbook reports year-over-year retail sales growth of 2.4%, weaker than last week, but still moderately strong. ICSC-Goldman reports a -2.5% sales decrease from last week, and only a 2.1% increase over last year.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 17 Sep 12

Today’s only economic release is the Empire State manufacturing index, which fell sharply to -10.41 vice -5.85 in August. New orders plunged to -14.03 down 12 points since June. Unfilled orders have been falling for months now, and stand at -14.89. On the other hand, the 6-month expectation for new orders is up to 17.02, well into positive territory. Whether those expectations will be met remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the district’s manufacturing sector continues to bump along the bottom.

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Dale Franks
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