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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 7 Jan 14

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index rose to -19 in December from -25 in November.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a 4.1% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a steep weekly sales drop of -5.4%, and a 1.7% increase on a year-over-year basis.

Exports rose and imports fell, lowering the trade deficit to $-34.3 billion in November.


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Economic Statistics for 2/3 Jan 14

The Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index fell a point to 19, the first reading below 20 in several months.

Initial jobless claims fell 2,000 to 339,000 last week. The 4-week moving average rose 8,500 to a 357,250. Continuing claims fell 98,000, but the 4 week averages for both weekly and continuing claims are above the month-ago levels, so the trend is negative.

The Markit PMI Manufacturing Index rose 0.3 points to 55.0 in December.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell -0.3 points in December to a still nicely positive 57.0.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.3 points to -28.7 .

Construction Spending is still going strong, up 1.0% in November, continuing a string of monthly gains.

Motor vehicle sales fell in December to an annualized 15.4 million rate. GM -6.3%, Ford 1.8%, Chrysler 6.0%, Toyota -1.4%.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-8.9 billion last week, with total assets of $4.024 trillion. Reserve Bank credit fell $-1.4 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $23.5 billion last week.


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Economic Statistics for 31 Dec 13

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a strong 4.5% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales increase of 1.0%, and a 3.0% increase on a year-over-year basis.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose a solid 1.0% in October, with a year-on-year 13.6% price increase.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell from an unsustainably high 63.0 in November to 59.1 in December.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose a strong 6.1 points in December to 78.1.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose from a revised 91.2 in November to 95.9 in December.


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Economic Statistics for 26 Dec 13

Initial jobless claims fell 42,000 to 338,000. The 4-week average rose 4,500 to 348,000, while continuing claims rose 46,000 to 2.923 million. Holiday volatility is still skewing the claims numbers wildly.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2 points to -27.4 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $24.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.033 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $27 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $5 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 24 Dec 13

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index remained unchanged at 13 for December.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -6.3% last week, with purchases down -4.0% and re-fis down -8.0%.

In weekly retail sales, ICSC Goldman reports a 1.4% weekly sales increase, and a 2.7% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, Redbook says sales rose 3.9% on a year-ago basis. These are the strongest sales results of the holidays.

Durable goods orders rose a sharp 3.5% in November, with orders ex-transportation orders up 1.9%. On a year-over-year basis, orders are up 10.9% and ex-transportation orders are up 6.1%.

The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.5% in October, a year-over-year increase of 8.2%.

New Home Sales fell -2.1% in November, to a 464,000 annual rate. This exceeded expectations, but looks soft against a sharply upward revised October annualized rate of 474,000.


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Economic Statistics for 23 Dec 13

Personal income rose 0.2% in November while personal spending increased 0.5%. The PCE price index was unchanged overall, and up 0.1% at the core. On a year-over-year basis, income rose 2.3% while spending rose 3.5%. The PCE price index rose 0.9% at the headline level, and up 1.1% ex-food and energy.

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 82.5 for November.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose from -0.18 to 0.60 in November.


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Economic Statistics for 19-20 Dec

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index moved into the minus 20s for the first time in 10 weeks, at -29.4.

Initial jobless claims rose 11,000 last week, to 379,000. The 4-week moving average rose 14,750 to 343,500. Continuing claims rose 94,000 to 2.884 million. These are all holiday numbers, though, so the week-to-week number is pretty volatile.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey’s General Business Conditions Index rose 0.5 points to 7.0 in December.

Existing home sales fell a sharp -4.3% in November, to a 4.9 million annual rate.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose 0.8% in November.

The Commerce Department’s final GDP revision for the 3rd Quarter was revised sharply upwards to a 4.1% annual rate. The GDP Price Index remained unrevised at 2.0%. Much of the revision came from increases in personal consumption expenditures, higher exports, and lower imports.

3rd Quarter corporate profits were revised upwards to $1.869 trillion vice the initial estimate of $1.872 trillion.

The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey was unchanged at 1.9% in December.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell sharply in December to -3 from last month’s 7.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $14.1 billion last week, with total assets of $$4.008 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $53.0 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $17.5 billion last week.


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