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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 5 Sep 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Nonfarm business productivity for the second quarter was revised upwards to 2.2%. Unit labor costs were revised downwards to a 1.5% increase. These revisions are in line with the earlier revisions to 2nd Quarter GDP.

The MBA reports mortgage applications fell by -2.5% last week, with purchases down -0.8%, and re-finance apps falling by -3.0%.

In weekly retail sales Redbook reports a strong 2.5% year-over-year sales increase, the strongest since June. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales fell -0.4% in the latest week, but is still up 3.7% year-on-year, the strongest increase of the summer.

 

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 4 Sep 12 (Updated)

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The final manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics is 51.5, almost unchanged from July’s 51.4.

The ISM manufacturing index remains at contractionary levels, falling 0.2 points to 49.6. New orders are contracting for the third straight month, and are at the worst level since April, 2009, at 47.1. The lack of new orders means the production index fell a very steep 4.1 points 47.1, the first reading under 50 since May 2009. There’s really nothing positive in this report.

Construction spending fell unexpectedly in July, falling -0.9% from June. On a year-over-year basis, spending rose 9.3%.

Motor vehicles sales will be reported throughout the day today. The consensus estimate is for 11.1-11.4 million units sold domestically, with 14.0-14.7 units sold worldwide.

UPDATE: The auto industry posted the best August sales in 5 years, with domestic vehicle sales at an annual 11.6 million annual rate, and total vehicle sales at 14.5 million. Sales were up over 20% from a year ago.Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, showed a sales increase of 46%, and Honda’s sales rose 59.5% as the company’s recover from the earthquake and tsunami last year. All three domestic auto makers posted greater sales gains than analysts had expected.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 31 Aug 12

Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:

The Chicago PMI fell slightly to 53, but this is eclipsed by the new orders index jumping 2 points to 54.8.

The consumer sentiment index rose 0.7 to end at 74.3 this month, but the future expectations index is declining as gas prices rise.

Factory orders snapped back from June’s decline with a 2.8% increase for July. The big jump is led mainly by a 4.8% increase in durable goods from transportation orders for airplanes and autos. Ex-transportation, durables orders were up 0.7%. Capital goods orders show a big dip when aircraft orders are excluded. Despite the aircraft orders skewing the numbers, however, the overall report points to modest economic growth.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Aug 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal income rose 0.3% in July, while personal spending rose 0.4%. The PCE price index was unchanged at both the headline and core levels. Year-over-year, the PCE shows 1.3% inflation, with the core rate, which doesn’t count food or energy costs, at 1.6%.

Initial Jobless claims were unchanged at 374,000. The 4-week moving average rose slightly to 370,250. Continuing claims fell 5,000 to 3.316 million.

Following last month’s strong results, today’s sales reports from chain stores are good to mixed, and, on net, slightly higher than last month.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index remains weak, rising only 0.1 to -47.3, following a 6-week decline in the index.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index rose to 5 in July from 3 in June, indicating a slightly better growth rate. That headline hides some underlying weakness, however, as the production index fell from last month’s 12 to 2 in July. New orders are also declining, though at a slightly slower rate than last month, as the index rose to -4 from -7.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Aug 12 (Updated)

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index rose a strong 2.4% in July t0 101.7. The year-on-year rate of 12.4% is the highest since 2010.

US corporate profits in the second quarter decreased to $1.648 trillion annualized, compared to $1.671 trillion in the first quarter, falling an annualized 5.3 percent.

The Commerce Department’s initial revision to 2nd quarter GDP growth was 1.7% on an annualized basis, up from the initial estimate of 1.5%.

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association reports mortgage applications fell -4.3%, with purchases up 1.0% and refinancings down 6.0%.

UPDATE: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on the state of the US economy says that economic activity "continued to expand gradually" in the current period. Retail sales and real estate were mainly positive. Six of the Fed districts had modest growth; five were moderate; two were slower; and one was mixed.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 28 Aug 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The seaonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose strongly in June at an adjusted 0.9%. This follows three strong gains in a row of between 0.7% and 0.9% between March to May. Prices came off the bottom, reflected in the year-on-year rate which is finally positive at 0.5%. Non-seasonally adjusted results are much stronger, with the index up 2.3%.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in July fell 5 points to 60.6. July was revised -0.5 lower to 65.4.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose in July to -9 from last month’s -17 to show continued contraction. New orders rose to -20 from July’s already very weak -25.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index, which measures the changes in investor holdings of equities, is down sharply this month, more than 3 points to 90.9.

In retail sales, Redbook reports a weak 1.5% year-over-year sales growth. Conversely, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales rose a solid 0.5% for the week and 3.4% year-over-year.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 23 Aug 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

The FHFA reports the house price index rose 0.7% for June, and is up 3.6% year-over-year.

Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 for a second straight week to 372,000. the 4-week moving average rose 1,000 to 368,000. Continuing claims rose 4,000 to 3.317 million.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose 0.5 points to 51.9, indicating low but rising manufacturing activity.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell a steep 3.0 points to -47.4 for the sixth straight drop and the lowest reading since December, 2011.

New home sales rose 3.6% in July to an annual unit rate of 372,000, well above consensus, and the best since July 2010.

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Dale Franks
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