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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 12 Nov 13

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.3 points in October to 91.6.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales rose 1.2% for the week, and 2.3% for the year. Redbook, meanwhile, shows a retail sales drop from 3.8% to 3.3% on a year-ago basis.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was unchanged at 0.14 in September, with the 3-month moving average at -0.03.


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Economic Statistics for 8 Nov 13

Non-farm payrolls increased by 204,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 7.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, while the average workweek declined to 34.4 hours. These headlines hide a lot. 720,000 people left the labor force, bringing the labor force participation rate down to 62.8%, the lowest since March, 1978. Meanwhile, an additional 17,000 people were counted as unemployed, while an additional 735,000 dropped out of the ranks of the employed. Overall, the total number of persons not in the labor force increased by 932,000. As a result, using the historical average labor force participation rate, the real unemployment rate rose from 11.45% to 11.98%, the highest in two years. Much of this oddness probably comes from skewing from the government shutdown.

Personal income rose 0.5% in September, while personal spending rose 0.2%. The PCE Price Index rose 0.1% both at the headline and core level. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 0.9% overall, and 1.2% at the core level, i.e., ex-food and -gas.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.2 points to 72.0 in the early November reading.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Nov 13

Chain stores reported October sales today. They were slightly positive, though the government shutdown seems to have had a negative effect.

3rd Quarter real GDP came is surprisingly high at an annual 2.8%, but inventory increases played an outsized role, contribution 0.83%. Personal consumption expenditure growth  declined from 1.8% last quarter to 1.5% in the 3rd quarter. The GDP Price Index rose 1.9%

Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 last week, to 336,000. The 4-week moving average fell 12,000 to 348,250. Continuing claims rose 4,000 to 2.868 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was essentially unchanged at -37.9 for the week.

The government’s expanding student loan portfolio is inflating consumer credit, which was up $13.7 billion in September.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $8.2 billion last week, with total assets of $3.852 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $7.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply fell by $-7.8 billion last week.


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Economic Statistics for 6 Nov 11

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -7.0% last week, with purchases falling -5.0% and refinancings -8.0%. The index is now at its lowest reading of the year.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows that layoffs are trending up, with 45,730 in October. Layoffs have averaged more than 45,000 per month for the last three months, vice the previous four months, when layoffs averaged under 38,000.

The Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index fell 2 points to 19 in October.

The Conference Board’s index of Leading Indicators rose 0.7% for the second straight month.


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Economic Statistics for 5 Nov 13

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a strong 3.8% increase in same-store sales from the last year. ICSC-Goldman’s chain-sample is much weaker, with a weekly sales decrease of -0.6%, and only a 1.9% increase on a year-over-year basis.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell a sharp 16 points to -35 in October, the sharpest monthly drop since 2008, when the index began.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose a point in October to 55.4.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Nov 13

The ISM manufacturing composite index remained steady, with just a 0.2 point rise to 56.4 in October.

Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index fell a point to 51.8 in October.

Vehicle sales were strong in October, coming in at a  15.2 million annual unit rate. Some of the sales increases reported: Chrysler 11%, GM 15.7%, Ford 14%, Toyota 8.8%.


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Economic Statistics for 31 Oct 13

Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 last week, to 340,000. The 4-week moving average rose 8,000 to 356,250. Continuing claims rose 31,000 to 2.881 million.

The Chicago PMI accelerated sharply in October to 65.9 from the previous month’s 55.7.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.5 points to -37.6.

Farm prices rose 0.5% in October, but on a year-over-year basis were down -11%.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $4.4 billion last week, with total assets of $3.843 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $12.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $55.9 billion last week.


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Economic Statistics for 30 Oct 13

The MBA reports that a dip in rates caused mortgage applications to rise 6.4% last week, with purchases up 2.0% and re-fis 9.0%.

ADP reports a smaller-than-expected rise in private payroll growth, at 130,000 in October, a disappointing number.

The Treasury reported a big $75.1 billion surplus in the month of September. This points to a substantially lower 2013 deficit.

The CPI rose 0.2% in September, with the core rate up 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices are up 1.2% overall, and up 1.7% ex-food and -energy.


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