The nation’s long period of below-trend economic growth extends into its sixth year. 2Q GDP was only 2.3% annualized. The GDP Price Index is also restrained once again, at 2.0% annualized.
Initial weekly jobless claims rose 12,000 to 267,000. The 4-week average fell 3,750 to 274,750. Continuing claims fell 1,000 to 2.255 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell a steep -1.9 points lower to 40.5 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-15.0 billion last week, with total assets of $4.486 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-4.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $18.3 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.8% last week, with purchases down -0.1% and refis up 2.0%.
The Pending Home Sales index unexpectedly fell a sharp -1.8% in June, to 110.3. Analysts expected a 0.4% increase.
The Fed took no interest rate action at the today’s FOMC meeting and saw no change in the pace of “moderate” economic growth.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell -0.2% in May, catching analysts by surprise. The Index is up 4.9% on a year-ago basis.
July’s PMI Services Flash reading is up 0.4 points from the June final, coming in at 55.2.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply lower in July, falling to 90.9 from 101.4 in June.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July came in above analysts’ expectations, rising 7 points to a reading of 13.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index for July fell sharply to 114.6 from June’s unusually high reading of 127.0.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales continued to fall, down to 1.0% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.2%.
Durable goods orders rose 3.4% in June, with ex-transportation orders up 0.8%. On a year over year basis, orders are down -2.8% overall, and -4.5 ex-transportation.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey shows a bit less negativity in July, rising 2.4 points to -4.6.
New home sales in June plunged -6.8% to a 482,000 annual rate. Prices were also soft, at a median $281,800, down -1.8% year-on-year.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for July came in at 53.8, which is very close to the final June reading of 54.0.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index continues to show deep contraction, though it rose to -7 from -9 in July.
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indictors rose 0.6% in June, pushed higher by a surge in Housing Permits.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved back into positive territory in June, rising from -0.17 to 0.8.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell a startling 26,000 to 255,000, a 42-year low. The 4-week average fell 4,000 to 278,500. Continuing claims 9,000 to 2.207 million. Auto retooling, and temporary layoffs, always make jobless claims a very tricky number in July.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped -0.8 points lower to 42.4 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $11.7 billion last week, with total assets of $4.544 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $12.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $5.9 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 0.1% last week, with purchases up 1.0% and refis down 1.0%.
The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.4% in May, with a year-over-year increase of 5.7%.
Existing home sales rose 3.2% in June, to a 5.49 million annual rate. Sales are up 9.6% over last June.
I missed posting yesterday, so this post will be a bit longer than most.
The Philadelphia Fed Surveys’s big jump in June was a one-time blip, as the July index fell to 5.7 from 15.2.
The housing market index was unchanged at 60 in July, but it is still the strongest reading since November 2005.
The Treasury reports that Net Foreign Demand for Long-Term US Securities jumped $93.0 billion in May on strong foreign interest in both US Treasuries and corporate bonds.
Consumer inflation rose 0.3% in June, with the core rate—less food and energy—up 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, inflation is up just 0.1% overall, but up 1.8% at the core.
Strong demand for apartment units drove housing starts up 9.8% in June at a 1.174 million annual rate. Building permits, an indicator of future activity, jumped 7.4% overall to a 1.343 million rate.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 93.3 in July, from June’s reading of 96.1.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 15,000 to 281,000. The 4-week average rose 3,250 to 282,500. Continuing claims fell 112,000 to 2.215 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 43.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $12.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.494 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $7.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $12.6 billion in the latest week.
Producer Prices for Final Demand rose 0.4% in June, with the core rising 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, PPI-FD is down -0.7%, but up 0.8% less food and energy. Overall PPI-FD results:
PPI-FD – M/M: 0.4%
PPI-FD less food & energy – M/M: 0.3%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services – M/M: 0.3%
PPI-FD Goods – M/M: 0.7%
PPI-FD Services – M/M: 0.3%PPI-FD – Y/Y: -0.7%
PPI-FD – Y/Y: -0.7%
PPI-FD less food & energy – Y/Y: 0.8%
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services – Y/Y: 0.7%
PPI-FD Goods – Y/Y: -3.7%
PPI-FD Services – Y/Y: 0.8%
The Fed reports that June industrial production rose 0.3%, as did capacity utilization in the nations factories, rising to 78.4%.
Today’s Beige Book from the Fed reports that 10 of 12 Fed districts are reporting only moderate to modest growth.
The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey shows inflation expectations rose 0.1% in July to 2.0%.
The Empire State Manufacturing index rose from -1.98 to 3.86 in July, but the new orders component is still dragging at -3.50.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -1.9% last week, with purchases down -8.0%, but refis up 4.0%.
PPI-FD Goods – Y/Y: -3.7%