Automobiles fairly flew off the dealers’ lots in November, as auto sales rose to a 18.2 million annual pace, a 12-year high.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 3.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s weak 1.5%. Thanks, Black Friday!
Markit’s PMI Manufacturing Index slowed from 54.1 to 52.8 in November.
The ISM Manufacturing Index slowed from a barely positive 50.1 to a contractionary 48.6 in November.
Construction pending rose a solid 1.0% in October, and is up 13.0% on a year-over-year basis.
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index remained unchanged at 013 in November.
The Chicago PMI plunged from 56.2 to 48.7 in November. A reading below 50 indicates economic contraction, but this is a volatile index.
Pending home sales rose only 0.2% in October to 107.7, reflecting soft home sales.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey improved, but still remained in negative territory in November, rising from -12.7 to -4.9.
It’s a massive set of statistical releases, as the Thanksgiving holidays have compressed the week’s releases into the day before the holiday. Without further ado, therefore…
The first revision to 3rd Quarter GDP added 0.6%, coming to a 2.1% annualized rate of growth. The GDP Price Index was revised up to 1.3%.
The nation’s trade gap in goods came in at a lower-than-expected deficit of $58.4 billion in October.
Corporate profits in the 3rd Quarter were revised to $1.786 trillion, up a year-on-year 1.4%.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 1.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.2%, as sales weakness continues.
The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index rose 0.6% in September, and is up 5.5% from the previous year.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index sank from 97.6 to 90.4 in November, on weak confidence in the jobs market.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index dropped -2 points to -3 in November.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index dropped -7.5 points to 106.8 in November.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.2% last week, with purchases down -1.0% and refis down -5.0%.
Durable goods orders rose 3.0% in October, mainly on aircraft orders coming out of the Dubai air show, but the previous several months of decline means orders are only up 0.5% from last year. Ex-transportation orders rose 0.5%, but are down -2.4% from a year ago. Core capital goods rose 1.3% and are up 0.4% from last year.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 12,000 to 260,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 271,000. Continuing claims rose 34,000 to 2.207 million.
Personal Income rose 0.4% in October, while spending rose 0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.1% overall, but was unchanged, ex-food and energy. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price index is up 0.2% at the headline level, and 1.3% at the core.
The FHFA House Price Index for September rose 0.8%, increasing in all nine regions of the country.
The PMI Services Flash for November rose 2.1 points to 56.5.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.3 points to 40.9 in the latest week.
Following the previous month’s -12.9% drop, new home sales in October rose 10.7% to a 495,000 annual rate.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -1.8 points to 91.3 for November.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose sharply in October, from -0.37 to a still-negative -0.04.
The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for October fell -1.4 points to 52.6.
Existing home sales fell -3.4% in October to a lower-than-expected annualized rate of 5.36 million.
The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey moved back into positive territory in November, rising from -4.5 to 1.9.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in October.
Initial weekly jobless claims fell 5,000 to 271,000. The 4-week average rose 3,000 to 270,750. Continuing claims rose 2,000 to 2.167 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.4 points to 41.2 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-5.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.487 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $7.2 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-13.4 billion in the latest week.
Today’s release of the minutes of the October FOMC meeting hint strongly that an interest rate hike may be in the cards for December.
The Atlanta Fed reports that annual inflation expectations for business were unchanged for November at 1.8%.
Housing starts fell sharply in October, down -11.0% to a 1.060 million annual rate.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 6.2% last week, with purchases up 12.0% and refis up 2.0%.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved a bit, but still stayed deeply negative at -10.74 in November.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% at both the headline and core rate in October. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 0.2% overall, but 1.9% less food and energy.
The Fed reports industrial production fell -0.2% in October, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories was unchanged at 77.5%. The production drop is misleading, since it includes big drops in mining and utilities. Manufacturing actually rose 0.4%.
The NAHB’s Housing Market index declined -2 points to 62 in November, signaling some weakness in home construction.
Growth in e-commerce sales remained strong in the 3rd quarter of 2015, up 4.2%.
Net foreign demand for US long-term securities rose to $33.6 billion in September vs a revised $20.8 billion in August.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose very slightly to a weak 1.2% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.1%.
The Labor Department’s JOLTS survey rose to 5.526 million job openings in September from a revised 5.377 million in August.
The Treasury reports that October’s budget deficit was $-136.5 billion, 12.2% higher than last October. Total spending was up 3.9% on the year.
Initial weekly jobless claims were unchanged at 276,000. The 4-week average rose 5,000 to 267,750. Continuing claims rose 5,000 to 2.174 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.5 points to 41.6 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.492 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.5 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $28.4 billion in the latest week.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was unchanged at 96.1 in October.
Import prices fell -0.5% in October, while export prices fell -0.2%. Year-over year, prices are down -10.5% for imports, and -6.7% for exports.
Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales fell to 1.1% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.9%, as sales weakness continues.
Wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in September, while a 0.5% increase in sales kept the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.31.