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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 24 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index contracted sharply in July to -14 versus -3 last month. New Orders fell to -25.

The FHFA purchase only house price index in May advanced 0.8%, following a 0.8% rise in April. The year-on-year rate is up 3.7%, vice 3.0% percent in April.

The Markit Economics’ PMI Flash for the US slowed to 51.8 in July versus the revised 52.5 in June.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook year-year chain store sales growth came in at a disappointing 1.3% rate, due to unseasonably hot weather. Conversely, ICSC-Goldman says cooler weather produced a 1.0% sales increase for the week, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 19 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

In a week confused by seasonal adjustments, initial unemployment claims rose 34,000 in to 386,000, which is much higher than expected. But the 4-week average is actually lower, down 1,500 to a 375,500. Continuing claims rose 1,000 to 3.314 million. The 4-week average is also up 1,000 to 3.312 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index remained unchanged at -37.5 in the latest week.

Existing home sales fell 5.4% in June to a much weaker than expected 4.37 million annual rate, the lowest of the year. The declines are across the board in both single-family homes and condos, and in all geographical regions.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey rose to -12.9, indicating a slower rate of contraction in the district from last month.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators fell 0.3% in June. But the coincident index rose 0.2% in June, indicating current growth in the economy.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 18 Jul 12 (Updated)

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

Housing starts rebounded 6.9% in June, to a 0.760 million annual rate. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell -3.7% to a 0.755 million annual rate.

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association reports mortgage applications rose 16.9% last week, with purchases down -0.1%, and re-finance applications up 22.0%.

Update: The Fed’s Beige Book report on the economy, while still troubling, was a bit more optimistic than expected. Retail sales, housing, loan demand, and inflation were moderately positive. Manufacturing is still weak, however. Overall, though, the report indicates a weakening recovery and sluggish economy. The strength in retail sales also is at odds with the official reporting, which indicates substantially more weakness than the Beige Book reports.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 17 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

The consumer price index was unchanged for June, and up 1.7% from last year. The core CPI rose 0.2%, and is up 2.2% from last year.

The Housing Market Index jumped the most in 10 years, rising a huge 6 points to 35, its highest level since March 2007. This has analysts hoping that the housing market has turned the corner.

Industrial production rose 0.4% in June, but capacity utilization at the nation’s factories fell slightly to 78.9%. Manufacturing output rose 0.7% for the month.

Net inflow of long-term securities rose $55.0 billion in May, up from April’s revised $27.2 billion. Foreign official institutions were the heaviest buyers of US securities in the month.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook shows a very disappointing 1.7% year-on-year sales increase, one of the lowest since April 2011. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales showed no increase from last week, and the year-on-year increase was 2.6%, which, while still on trend, is moving south.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 16 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

Retail sales declined for the third month in a row, falling a greater-than-expected -0.5% in June. Less autos, sales fell -0.4%; less gas and autos, sales fell -0.2%. Retail sales on a year-ago basis were up 3.8%.

In another unwelcome sign for the economy, Business inventories in May rose 0.3%, while sales fell 0.1% for the second month in a row. This raised the stock-to-sales ratio to 1.27. That’s the highest level since May 2011.

The Empire State Mfg Survey rose more than 5 points to 7.39, but new orders, an indication of future activity, fell to -2.69. Unfilled orders are also contracting, at a very steep -13.58.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 13 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

The Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, and up 0.8% on a year-over-year basis. Ex-food and transportation, the Core PPI was up 0.2%, and 2.6% year-over-year.

While some increasing optimism is evident in the underlying numbers, the overall consumer sentiment index fell 1.2 points to 72.0.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 12 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

Initial jobless claims fell 26,000 to 350,000 last week, mainly due to seasonal distortions in the Auto Industry. The 4-week moving average fell to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.304 million.

Import prices for June followed May’s 1.0% decline by falling -1.7%, with a year-over-year rate of -2.1%. Export prices fell -2.7%, with a year-over-year rate of -2.6%.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index remained unchanged at 37.5 in the latest week.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 11 Jul 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

In May, the U.S. trade gap shrank to $48.7 billion from a revised $50.6 billion in April, primarily on falling oil prices.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in May, well above a -0.8% decline in sales at the wholesale level. The stock to sales ratio rose to 1.18.

MBA Purchase applications fell -2.1% in the latest week, with purchase apps rising 3.0% and re-finance apps falling -3.0%.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 10 Jul 12

Today kicks off the week’s statistics on the state of the US economy:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 full points in June to 91.4, a "significant" decline that reverses year-to-date improvement. The report highlights a weak labor sector, with job creation contracting for the first time this year. Also in decline were capital investment plans, earnings trends, and special weakness in consumer spending—especially on services.

In retail sales, Redbook reports year-over-year store sales were unchanged at a weak 2.2%. Conversely, ICSC-Goldman shows retail sales strength, with comparable store sales rose 2.0% for the week, and were up 3.0% over last year.

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Dale Franks
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