Consumer prices rose 0.3% in April, with prices less food and energy–the “core” rate–rising 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 2.0%, while the core rate is up 1.8%.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 297,000. The 4-week average fell 750 to 323,250. Continuing claims fell 9,000 to 2.667 million, a recovery low. Or what would be a recovery low had we ever had an actual recovery. But, I digress.
The General Business Conditions Index of the New York manufacturing survey made a rare jump of almost 18 points to 19.01 in May.
The General Conditions Index of the Philadelphia Fed Survey fell -1.2 points to 15.4 in May.
The Treasury Department reports that foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities was a net $4.0 billion in March.
The Fed reports that industrial production fell -0.6% in April, as capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell to 78.6%. Manufacturing declined by -0.4%.
The National Association of Home Builders reports that the Housing Market Index fell -2 points to 45 in May.
E-Commerce retail sales in the 1st Quarter of 2014 rose 2.8%, versus 3.4% in the 4th Quarter of 2013.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $33.5 billion last week, with total assets of $4.337 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $18.0 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $22.6 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 3.6% last week. Purchases were down -1.0% but re-fis rose 7.0%.
Producer prices rose 0.6% overall in April, with both goods and services prices up 0.6%. Ex-food and -energy, prices rose 0.5%. Less food, energy, and trade services, prices rose 0.3% On a year-over-year basis, the overall PPI is up 2.1%, with goods prices up 2.5% and services prices up 2.0%.
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey shows inflation expectations in May are unchanged at 1.9%.
The NFIB small business optimism index rose a sharp 1.8 points to 95.2 in April. It’s the highest reading since since 2007.
ICSC-Goldman’s read on retail sales shows a weak -0.1 sales drop from last week, but a strong year-over-year 3.9% increase. Redbook’s weekly retail sales figure shows year-on-year strength, with a 4.2% sales increase.
The Census Bureau’s April retail sales report shows a soft 0.1% increase. Sales ex-autos were unchanged. sales ex-autos and -gas fell -0.1%.
April export prices fell -0.1%, and import prices fell -0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, export prices rose 0.1%, while import prices fell -0.3%.
Business inventories rose 0.4% in March, while a 1.0% rise in sales kept the inventory-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.30.
Those chain stores that still report monthly sales showed exceptionally good April sales, helped by warmer weather and a late Easter.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell 26,000 to 319,000. The 4-week average rose 4,7540 to 324,750. Continuing claims fell 76,000 to 2.685 million.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.8 points to 37.1 in the latest week.
The Fed’s balance sheet rose $7.1 billion last week, with total assets of $4.303 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $5.6 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose $51.2 billion in the latest week.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 5.3% last week. Purchases rose 9.0% and re-fis 2.0%.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index rose 2 points to 25 in April.
Non-farm productivity fell a sharp -1.7% annualized in the 1st Quarter of 2014 while unit labor costs rose 4.2%. Weather distortions are being blamed. On a year-over-year basis, productivity is up 1.4%.
The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI fell -0.7 points to 52.8 in April. The Global Services PMI fell -0.8 points to 52.7.
Consumer credit expanded by a sharp $17.5 billion in March, but it’s mainly in non-revolving credit.
ICSC-Goldman reports weekly retail sales fell -2.0%, and were up only 2.0% on a year-over-year basis. Redbook reports a strong 4.4% increase in retail sales over last year.
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index remained at -16 for April.
The March trade deficit fell to $-40.4 billion. Exports rose 2.1% while imports rose 1.1%.
Gallup’s self-reported Consumer Spending measure rose $1 in April to $88.
The Markit PMI services index for April closed at 55.0, down -0.3 points from the April flash.
The non-manufacturing ISM survey for April rose 2.1 points to 55.2.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 points to 51.9.
April auto sales cooled slightly, to an annual pace of 16.0 million vice March’s 16.4 million.
Challenger’s layoff count rose to 40,298 in April from 34,399 in March, led by layoffs in the retail sector.
Weekly initial jobless claims rose 16,000 to 344,000. The 4-week average rose 3,250 to 320,000. Continuing claims rose 97,000 to 2.771 million.
Personal income rose 0.5% in March, while personal spending increased by 0.9% The PCE price index rose 0.2% at both the headline and core level. On a year-over-year basis, personal income rose 3.4% while spending rose 4.0%. The PCE price index rose 1.1%, and 1.2% ex-food and -energy.
Markit’s final PMI Manufacturing Index for April fell 0.1 points to 55.4.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index plummeted from -25.4 to -37.9 in the latest week.
The ISM manufacturing composite index rose 1.4 points to 54.9 in April.
Construction spending in March rose a less-than-expected 0.2%, an increase of 8.4% from March 2013.
The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-0.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.296 trillion. Total reserve bank credit rose by $4.6 billion.
The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-25.8 billion in the latest week.
Real economic growth slowed to an annualized 0.1% in the 1st Quarter of 2014, well short of expectations. The GDP Price Index rose an annualized 1.3%. The ongoing sub-par economic growth we predicted in 2009 continues into its fifth year. As of yet, we have experienced no real recovery from the economic crash that began in October, 2008.
The Employment Cost Index hit a record low increase of 0.3% for 1Q 2014, a level only seen twice before in the 32 years of this index. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 1.8%.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index made a big jump in April to 63.0 from 55.9 in March.
The MBA reports that mortgage applications plummeted -5.9% last week. Purchases fell -4.0% and re-fis -7.0%.
The Federal Open Markets Committee left interest rates unchanged today, with a Federal Funds Rate Target Level of 0% to 0.25%.
ADP’s estimate for private payroll growth in April is for 220,000 net new jobs.