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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 31 Aug 12

Here are today’s statistics on the state of the economy:

The Chicago PMI fell slightly to 53, but this is eclipsed by the new orders index jumping 2 points to 54.8.

The consumer sentiment index rose 0.7 to end at 74.3 this month, but the future expectations index is declining as gas prices rise.

Factory orders snapped back from June’s decline with a 2.8% increase for July. The big jump is led mainly by a 4.8% increase in durable goods from transportation orders for airplanes and autos. Ex-transportation, durables orders were up 0.7%. Capital goods orders show a big dip when aircraft orders are excluded. Despite the aircraft orders skewing the numbers, however, the overall report points to modest economic growth.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Aug 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Personal income rose 0.3% in July, while personal spending rose 0.4%. The PCE price index was unchanged at both the headline and core levels. Year-over-year, the PCE shows 1.3% inflation, with the core rate, which doesn’t count food or energy costs, at 1.6%.

Initial Jobless claims were unchanged at 374,000. The 4-week moving average rose slightly to 370,250. Continuing claims fell 5,000 to 3.316 million.

Following last month’s strong results, today’s sales reports from chain stores are good to mixed, and, on net, slightly higher than last month.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index remains weak, rising only 0.1 to -47.3, following a 6-week decline in the index.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index rose to 5 in July from 3 in June, indicating a slightly better growth rate. That headline hides some underlying weakness, however, as the production index fell from last month’s 12 to 2 in July. New orders are also declining, though at a slightly slower rate than last month, as the index rose to -4 from -7.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Aug 12 (Updated)

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index rose a strong 2.4% in July t0 101.7. The year-on-year rate of 12.4% is the highest since 2010.

US corporate profits in the second quarter decreased to $1.648 trillion annualized, compared to $1.671 trillion in the first quarter, falling an annualized 5.3 percent.

The Commerce Department’s initial revision to 2nd quarter GDP growth was 1.7% on an annualized basis, up from the initial estimate of 1.5%.

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association reports mortgage applications fell -4.3%, with purchases up 1.0% and refinancings down 6.0%.

UPDATE: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on the state of the US economy says that economic activity "continued to expand gradually" in the current period. Retail sales and real estate were mainly positive. Six of the Fed districts had modest growth; five were moderate; two were slower; and one was mixed.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 28 Aug 12

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The seaonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose strongly in June at an adjusted 0.9%. This follows three strong gains in a row of between 0.7% and 0.9% between March to May. Prices came off the bottom, reflected in the year-on-year rate which is finally positive at 0.5%. Non-seasonally adjusted results are much stronger, with the index up 2.3%.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in July fell 5 points to 60.6. July was revised -0.5 lower to 65.4.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose in July to -9 from last month’s -17 to show continued contraction. New orders rose to -20 from July’s already very weak -25.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index, which measures the changes in investor holdings of equities, is down sharply this month, more than 3 points to 90.9.

In retail sales, Redbook reports a weak 1.5% year-over-year sales growth. Conversely, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales rose a solid 0.5% for the week and 3.4% year-over-year.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 23 Aug 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

The FHFA reports the house price index rose 0.7% for June, and is up 3.6% year-over-year.

Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 for a second straight week to 372,000. the 4-week moving average rose 1,000 to 368,000. Continuing claims rose 4,000 to 3.317 million.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose 0.5 points to 51.9, indicating low but rising manufacturing activity.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell a steep 3.0 points to -47.4 for the sixth straight drop and the lowest reading since December, 2011.

New home sales rose 3.6% in July to an annual unit rate of 372,000, well above consensus, and the best since July 2010.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 21 Aug 12

The following statistics were released today on the state of the US economy:

In weekly retail sales, Redbook’s year-on-year chain store sales growth came in at a 1.9% rate, the 5th time in 6 weeks it’s been below 2%. Redbook’s month-on-month rate is -0.3%, signaling weakness in the upcoming government reports on retail sales. ICSC-Goldman showed a -1.5% sales decrease for the week, and a year-on-year rate of 3.1%, which is down -0.5% from last week.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 20 Aug 12

T

his will be a light week for economic statistics, with the only releases of importance being home sales on Wednesday and Thursday for existing and new homes respectively, and Friday’s Durable Goods Orders release. The remainder of this weeks releases are the regular weekly numbers.

For today, there is only one release. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose slightly to -0.13 from last month’s -0.15, thought the negative number indicates the economy is still below trend. This is the fifth consecutive negative number, and the 3-month moving average fell slightly to -0.21.

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Dale Franks
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