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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 5 Feb 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell 0.9 points to 55.2. There were signs of strength in the report, however, with the employment index rising 2.2 points to 57.5, the highest monthly jump in 7 years.

In weekly retail sales, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales rose 2.4% for the week, and up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, but the 4-week average is still below trend. Redbook reports a very soft 1.5% year-over-year sales increase. Both reports indicate January retail sales are weak.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 1 Feb 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

It was another lackluster jobs report. Non-farm payrolls increased by 157,000 net new jobs in January. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.4, while average hourly earnings rose $0.04 to $23.78. The unemployment rate rose a tick to 7.9%. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 63.6%. The number of persons reporting themselves to be unemployed rose by 126,000 to 12,332. Those not in the labor force rose 169,000 to 89.008 million. The U-6 unemployment rate, the broadest gauge of unemployment the BLS produces, remained steady at 14.4%. Calculating the unemployment rate at the historical average of labor force participation, gives a real unemployment rate of 11.5%, up 0.1% from December.

The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for January rose 2.5 points to 73.8.

The final PMI Manufacturing Index for January rose 1.8 points to 55.8.

The ISM manufacturing index continued to move into positive territory, up 2.4 points to 53.1 in January.

Construction spending jumped 0.9% in December, and is up 7.8% on a year-over-year basis.

Car manufacturers are reporting monthly sales for January today. Ford, GM, and Chrysler all saw double-digit sales increases. GM: 15.9%, Ford: 22%, Chrysler: 16%. Other sales results today saw Volkswagen with a 7% increase, and Toyota with 27%. Overall, automakers are on track to sell 15 million to 15.5 million vehicles this year.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 31 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index continued its decline, falling to -37.5 this week. The index has lost 5.7 points so far this year.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.6 for January, on increases in new orders and production.

The Employment Cost Index rose 0.5% in the 1st Quarter, while the year-over-year increase was 1.9%, as wage inflation remains restrained.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report shows a total of 40,430 announced layoffs for January.

Initial jobless claims rose 38,000 to 360,000 last week, erasing last week’s sharp decline. The 4-week average fell 7,000 to 352,000. Continuing claims rose 22,000 to 3.197 million.

Personal income rose a sharp 2.6% in December, while consumer spending rose 0.2%. The PCE Price index, an inflation measure, was unchanged at both the headline and core levels. On a year-over-year basis, personal income rose 6.9%, while spending rose 3.6%. The PCE price index rose 1.3%, with a core rate increase of 1.4%.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 30 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

The Commerce Department reports that 4th Quarter GDP came in well below expectations, declining -0.1%. The GDP Price Index, an inflation measure, rose 0.6%. Government purchases fell by 6.6%, leading the decline, but the rest of the report is generally more sluggish than in the 3rd quarter, with final sales of domestic product rising only 1.1%, versus 2.4% in the 3rd quarter.

MBA Purchase applications fell -8.1% last week, with mortgages down -2.0% and re-fis down -10.0%.

ADP estimates a gain of 192,000 private payroll jobs in December.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 29 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Consumer confidence continues to drop, with the January index falling to 58.6, the lowest in two years.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index rose to 86.8, despite economic concerns among institutional investors in Europe.

S&P Case-Shiller reports home prices rose 0.6% in November, and were up 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports another slow week, with a 1.6% increase from the previous year. ICSC-Goldman reports a weekly sales decrease of -1.0%, and only a 2.0% increase on a year-over-year basis.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 28 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Durable goods orders jumped a better-than-expected 4.6% in December on a spike in aircraft orders. Ex-transportation orders rose 1.3%.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey slipped to 5.5 in January from the prior reading of 6.8, but the production index jumped 10 points to 12.9.

The Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.3% to 101.7 in December, as tight supplies are drying  up the availability of homes.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 25 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

New home sales in December plunged 7.3% to an annual rate of 369k. This drop mainly reflects a huge upwards revision to November, however, making the month-to-month comparison look particularly bad. Having said that, it was still a less robust number than analysts expected. On the other hand, the report notes that the median home price is up 1.3% to $248,900, the highest in more than five years.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 24 Jan 13

The following US economic statistics were announced today:

Initial jobless claims supposedly fell 5,000 to 330,000 for the week. Supposedly, because three states, including California, are merely estimates. Apparently the states didn’t get their number in on time. So, we are, according to the official data, at a 5-year low for unemployment claims. The 4-week average dropped to 351,750, and continuing claims reportedly fell 71,000 to 3.157 million, another 4.5 year low.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -2 in January, down 1 point from December.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose a sharp 0.5% in December, supposedly showing a nice economic surge in another 6 months or so, but this index has been very volatile of late.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index inched to a 3-month low of -36.4.

The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash is contradicting all the regional Fed reports, showing at 56.1 for January, up two points from December.

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Dale Franks
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