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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 23 Jun 16

New home sales fell -6.0% in May to a 551,000 annual rate.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.51 in May, from the previous month’s 0.10. The 3-month moving average fell to -0.36.

The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4 in June.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell -0.2% in May.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index rose from -5 to 2 in June.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 18,000 to 259,000. The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 267,000. Continuing claims fell 20,000 to 2.142 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 2.1 points to 44.2 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $9.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.482 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $6.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $40.4 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 22 Jun 16

A slow week for economic data begins with Redbook’s weekly retail sales report, which shows year-on-year, same-store sales up slightly better, but still weak at 0.9%, compared to last week’s 0.7%.

Existing home sales rose 1.8% in May, to a 5.530 million annual rate. Sales are up 4.5% on a year-over-year basis.

The FHFA House Price Index rose a smaller than expected 0.2% in April, though the idea is up 5.9% from a year ago.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week, with purchases down -2.0%, but refis up 7.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 16 Jun 16

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, at both the headline and core rates. On a year-over year basis, the CPI is up 1.0% overall, but up 2.2% ex-food and -energy.

Despite a raft of negative details in the report, the overall Philadelphia Fed Survey rose from -1.8 to 4.7 in June.

The nation’s current account deficit widened in the 1st Quarter, to $-124.7 billion from an upwardly revised $-113.4 billion in the 4th Quarter. 

The NAHB’s Housing Market Index, after holding unchanged for four straight months, those 2 points to 60 in June.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 13,000 to 277,000. The 4-week average fell 500 to 269,250. Continuing claims rose 45,000 to 2.157 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell sharply, down -1.1 points to 42.1 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $9.3 billion last week, with total assets of $4.472 trillion. Reserve bank credit increased $8.7 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $12.7 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 15 Jun 16

The Federal Open Markets Committee’s newest economic projections show a maximum GDP growth rate of 2.2% until after 2018.

May Producer Prices for Final Demand rose 0.4%, while prices less food and energy rose 0.3%. Less trade services, however, prices fell -0.1%. On a year-over year basis, PPI-FD were down -0.1%, up 1.2% less food and energy, and up 0.8% less trade services.

Industrial production fell -0.4% in May, while capacity utilization in the nation’s factories fell -0.5% to 74.9%.

Foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities in April fell by $-79.6 billion, fully reversing March’s $78.1 billion inflow.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose into positive territory again, rising from -9.02 to 6.01 in June.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -2.4% last week, with purchases down -5.0% and refis down -1.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 14 Jun 16

Retail sales rose a surprising 0.5% in May, with sales less autos up 0.4%, and sales less autos and gas up 0.3%.

Import prices rose a huge 1.4% in May, while export prices rose 1.1%. On a year-over-year basis, however, prices are down -5.0% for imports and -4.5% for exports.

Business inventories rose 0.1% in April, but a 0.9% increase in sales lowered the stock-to-sales ratio from 1.41 to 1.40.

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism index rose 0.2 points to 93.8 in May.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth rose to a sluggish 0.7% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.6%.


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Economic Statistics for 10 Jun 16

The US Budget deficit for may was $52.5 billion. The fiscal year to date deficit, at $407.1 billion is 11.0% higher than last year. May’s deficit is actually understated, as calendar issues pushed about $30 billion of payments into June.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -0.4 points in June to 94.3 for the preliminary estimate.


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Economic Statistics for 09 Jun 16

Wholesale inventories rose a sharp 0.6% in April, but a 1.0% rise in wholesale sales reduced the stock-to-sales ratio to 1.35.

Initial weekly jobless claims fell 4,000 to 264,000. The 4-week average fell 7,500 to 269,500. Continuing claims fell 77,000 to 2.095 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was unchanged at 43.2 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $2.2 billion last week, with total assets of $4.464 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $1.1 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-11.0 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 8 Jun 16

The Labor Department’s JOLTS report says that April job openings rose to 5.788 million from a downward revised 5.670 million in March.

The Census Bureau reports that Information Revenue rose 1.3% in the 1st Quarter, and is up 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 9.3% last week, with purchases up 12.0% and refis up 7.0%.


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Economic Statistics for 7 Jun 16

Non-farm productivity fell at an annualized rate of -0.6% while unit labor costs rose 4.5%. This is a key weakness in the economy. It looks better on a year-over-year basis, but not much, with productivity up 0.7% and unit labor costs up 3.0%.

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions index fell from -0.9 in April to -4.8 in May, the 5th straight negative, and the lowest since 2009.

Gallup’s US Spending Measure indicates that Americans’ self-reported daily spending fell from $95 to $93.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was unchanged at -14 in May.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales growth fell to 0.6% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 0.9%.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Jun 16

May’s Employment Situation is very disappointing, with only 38,000 net new jobs created. Labor force participation dropped -0.2% to 62.6% as 458,000 workers left the labor force. Overall, the number of people not in the labor force grew by 664,000. These negatives are hidden, of course, by the clearly meaningless “unemployment” rate which plunged by -0.3% to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, but the average workweek fell -0.1 hours to 34.4 hours. Still, congratulations to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who’ve managed to create a method of calculating the unemployment rate that is completely unmoored from any actual labor market condition.

The nation’s trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $-37.4 billion in April.

Factory orders rose 1.9% in April, due to civilian aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders actually fell a disappointing-0.6%.

The PMI Services Index fell -1.5 points to 51.3 in May, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped -2.8 points to 52.9.


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