Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

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Economic Statistics for 6 Nov 15

The BLS reports that a higher-than-expected 271,000 net new jobs were created in October, the largest increase since December, 2014. The unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 5.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $25.20, while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged at 62.4%. 313,000 people entered or re-entered the labor force, while the number of people reporting themselves employed rose 320,000. The number of people not in the labor force declined by -97,000. The U-6 unemployment rate, the broadest definition of unemployment published by the government, fell -0.2% to 9.8%.

Consumer credit surged $28.9 billion in September, the largest increase in the history of this data release. Revolving credit also rose $6.7 billion.


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Economic Statistics for 5 Nov 15

Chain stores are reporting weaker rates of year-on-year sales in October, as warm weather held down sales of seasonals. 

Challenger reports that layoff announcements fell in October to 50,504 vs September’s 58,877.

Non-farm productivity rose only 1.6% in the 3rd Quarter, while unit labor costs rose 1.4%.

The Gallup Good Jobs rate (GGJ) was 45.3 percent in October, about the same as the last two months.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 16,000 to 276,000. The 4-week average rose 2,500 to 262,750. Continuing claims rose 17,000 to 2.163 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -1.7 points to 41.1 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $0.4 billion last week, with total assets of $4.490 trillion. Reserve bank credit fell $-6.6 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply rose by $15.4 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 4 Nov 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -0.8% last week, with purchases and refis both down -1.0%.

The ADP Employment Report is calling for 182,000 new net private sector jobs in October. We’ll see, in Friday’s Employment Situation.

September’s international trade deficit came in at $-40.8 billion, compared to $-48.3 billion the prior month.

For the sixth month in a row, Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index held steady at 32 in October.

Markit’s PMI Services Index fell -0.3 points to 54.8 in October.

ISM’s non-manufacturing index jumped 2.2 points to a very strong 59.1 in October.


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Economic Statistics for 3 Nov 15

For the 11th time in 14 months, factory orders fell in September, down -1.0%, as the strong dollar continues to cripple exports.

Motor Vehicle sales surged to an 18.2 million annual rate in October, the highest rate in 12 years.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -13 in October, up just 1 point from the previous month.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales climbed to 1.9% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.5%.


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Economic Statistics for 2 Nov 15

Gallup’s US Consumer Spending Measure reports that, in October, Americans’ daily self-reports of spending averaged $92, up $4 from September. 

October’s PMI Manufacturing Index rose a full point to 54.1. This seems to be counter to the various recent Fed surveys.

The ISM Manufacturing index is barely positive at 50.1 for October, and contradicts this month’s PMI.

Construction spending, led by housing, rose o.6% in September, and is up 14.1% from September, 2014.


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Economic Statistics for 29-30 Oct

Real GDP in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 rose a disappointing 1.5% annualized, while the GDP Price index rose 1.2%.

September’s pending home sales index fell -2.3% to a reading of 106.8.

Both personal income and spending rose 0.1% in September, while the PCE Price Index fell -0.1% overall, and rose 0.1% less food and energy. 

The employment cost index for the 3rd Quarter of 2015 rose a sizable 0.6%, but the year-on-year rise is unchanged at 2.0%.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell -2.1 points to 90.0 in October.

The Chicago PMI surged 7.5 points from September and 6.0 points over consensus to 56.2 in October.

Initial weekly jobless claims rose 1,000 to 260,000. The 4-week average fell 4,000 to 259,250. Continuing claims fell 100,000 to 2.144 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell -0.7 points to 42.8 in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet fell $-12.0 billion last week, with total assets of $4.489 trillion. Reserve bank credit rose $0.9 billion.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-7.6 billion in the latest week.


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Economic Statistics for 28 Oct 15

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell -3.5% last week, with purchases down -3.0% and refis down -4.0%.

September’s deficit in international trade in goods declined to $-58.6 billion from August’s $-67.2 billion. Exports rose 3.1% and imports fell -2.5%.

The Federal Open Markets Committee left interest rates unchanged today, with a Fed Funds target rate of 0.0%-0.25%.


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Economic Statistics for 27 Oct 15

Durable Goods order fell again in September, down -1.2% overall, with ex-transoportation orders down -0.4% and core capital goods down -0.3%. On a year over year basis:
Durables: -3.0%
Ex-Transportation: -5.1%
Core capital goods:  -7.3%

The Case-Shiller home price index rose a slight 0.1% in August, and is up 5.1% on a year-ago basis.

The PMI services flash reading for October fell -1.2 points to 54.4.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell sharply from 103.0 to a worse than expected 97.6 in October.

The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index rose from -5 to a still-negative -1 in October. All five regional Fed economic activity reports are negative.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index slipped -1.7 points, but remained healthy at 114.3.

Redbook reports that last week’s retail sales rose to 1.5% on a year-ago basis, from the previous week’s 1.3%, as slow improvement continues.


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