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Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 25 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistics are all about housing:

After last week’s huge rise, the MBA is reporting a sharp pullback on mortgage applications. The composite index fell -5% last week, with the purchase index off -5.4% and refinance index down -5.2%.

FHFA reports house prices rebounded a bit, up 1% for the month, but still down -1.8% compared to last year.

The Pending Home Sales Index fell to 96.6 from 100.1 this month. Pending home sales volume is down -3.5%.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 24 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

The week has started slowly, as there were no releases yesterday, and only minor releases today.

Retail sales, as reported by Redbook, have slowed substantially in January, as last week was…weak, and so is this week, with the year-on-year same-store sales rate falling 0.5% 2.8%. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales also fell steeply, down -1.4% from last week, and up only 2.8% from last year.

The Richmond Fed index rose strongly from last month’s 3 to 12 this month, indicating expanding growth in the richmond district’s manufacturing sector.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 19 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in December. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose only 0.1%.

Housing starts slipped to a 650,000 annualized rate in December. Housing permits, though, rose to a 6798,000 rate, which is encouraging.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 50,000 to an unexpectedly low 352,000, the largest weekly drop since September 2005. The 4-week moving average dropped from 381,750 to 379,000. Continuing claims also greatly improved, falling 215,000 to 3.432 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to -47.4 from the last reading’s -44.7.

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey shows a drop in general business conditions to 7.3 from last month’s 10.3.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 18 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

Industrial production rose by 0.4% last month, with manufacturing increasing 0.9%. Capacity utilization rose to 78.1%.

The overall Producer Price Index fell -0.1% last month, but is up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis. The Core PPI, minus food and energy—rose 0.3%, and is up 3% for the year.

The Housing Market Index rose from a depressed 21 to a slightly less depressed 25 last month.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting a huge jump in mortgage applications, with purchase apps up 10.3% and re-finance apps up 26.4%, bringing the composite up 23.1% for the week.

In weekly retail sales, Redbook reports a second slow weeks of retail sales, with a year-over-year sales increase of only 2.8%. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales are also soft, with chain store sales up only 0.1% for the week, and 3% over last year.

Overall, we’re continuing to see mildly good news overall, in terms of production and housing, but retail spending and employment remains relatively weak, and inflation threats still hover over what remains a somewhat recessionary economy.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 13 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

The US trade deficit widened sharply to $-47.8 billion on both rising oil imports and falling exports.

December export prices fell -0.5%, but were up 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. Import prices also fell -0.1% for the month, but were up 8.5% for the year.

Consumer sentiment continues to rise to 74.0 at mid-month January from 69.9 at the end of December.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 12 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

Initial Jobless claims have been declining for several weeks, but last week jumped 24,000 to 399,000. The first week of the year is always bad like that, though. Often, it’s the worst week of the year. I think the seasonal variations really confound the government’s ability to factor in the loss of temporary holiday jobs.

December retail sales were worse than expected. Sales were up 0.1% over last month and, ex-autos, actually declined -0.2%. Ex-autos and Gas, sales were flat. Retail sales for October and November were also revised downwards. On a year-on-year basis, however, sales were up 6.5%, and up 6% ex-autos. So today’s report is a disappointment, but not a disaster.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was -44.7 last week, up from -44.8 the prior week. That’s the highest reading since July.

Business inventories and sales both rose 0.3% in November, keeping the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged for a 5th straight month.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 11 Jan 12

Today’s economic statistical releases:

The MBA reports Mortgage applications are on the rebound after 3 weeks of sharp declines. Purchase applications rose 8.1% and refinance applications rose 3.3% last week. The composite index rose 4.5%.

We’re waiting, at the moment, for the release of the Fed’s Beige Book report on the economy, due out at 2PM EST.

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Dale Franks
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Economic Statistics for 10 Jan 11

Today’s economic statistical releases:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  rose for a 4th straight month by 1.8 points to 93.8.

Inventory build corrected sharply in November wholesale trade, increasing only 0.1% as businesses kept their inventories in check.

In weekly retail sales: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales plunged -5.4% in the Jan 7 week, with Year on year sales growth only 2.8%. Redbook also reports a strong sales decline, with the year-on-year rate falling from 4.9% to 3.3% last week.

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Dale Franks
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