Free Markets, Free People

Economic statistics

Economic Statistics for 02 Oct 13

The MBA reports that mortgage applications fell 0.4% last week, with purchases down 6.0% but re-fis up 3.0%.

ADP reports that September private-sector job growth was weaker than expected, with only 166,000 private sector jobs created.

Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index fell a point to 21 in September.

Confirmation of the private sector jobs reports would usually come from the government’s official statistics on the first Friday of the month, but the government shutdown may delay the release of the BLS’s September Employment Situation.


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Economic Statistics for 1 Oct 13

Total vehicle sales fell a sharp 5.1% in September, to a 15.3 million annualized sales rate. Domestic vehicle sales were 11.8 million vice 12.6 million in August.

Redbook reports chain-store sales rose to a 3.8% year-on-year sales rate. ICSC-Goldman’s same-store sales index rose 0.2% last week, with year-over-year sales growth of 2.1%.

Markit Economics’ PMI manufacturing index fell 0.3 points to 52.8 in September.

The ISM manufacturing index rose 0.5 points to 56.2 in September.

The construction spending report due today has been delayed due to the government shutdown.


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Economic Statistics for 26 Sep 13

The Commerce Department’s final revision for 2nd Quarter GDP was unchanged at an annualized growth of 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 last week, to 305,000. The 4-week moving average fell 7,000 to 308,000. Continuing claims rose 35,000 to 2.823 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose 0.7 points to -28.1.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index reports manufacturing slowing in their district, with the index down 6 point to 2 for September.

Corporate profits for the 2nd Quarter were revised down to $1.821 trillion from the initial estimate of $1.830 trillion.

The Fed reports that M2 Money Supply increased by $4.0 billion last week.

The Fed’s balance sheet rose $11.8 billion last week, with total assets of $3.734 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $22.6 billion.

Economic Statistics for 25 Sep 13

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose 5.5% last week, with purchases up 7.0% and re-fis 5.0%.

Durable goods orders in August edged up 0.1% after dropping a huge 8.1% in July. Ex-transportation orders fell -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, orders rose 13.7% at the headline level, while ex-transportation orders rose 7.6%.

New home sales rose 7.9% in August on softer prices to an annual rate of 421,000.


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Economic Statistics for 24 Sep 13

In weekly retail sales, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales fell -1.0% following last week’s -1.6% drop. Year-over-year sales growth is at a weak 1.6%. Conversely, Redbook is reporting solid retail sales, up 3.6% from last year.

The FHFA House Price Index rose 1.0% in July, with the year-over-year increase coming in at 8.8%.

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index is up 0.6% in July, with a year-over-year increase of 12.4%.

Consumer confidence continues to sag, with the Conference Board’s index falling -1.8 points to 79.7 in September.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index shows no change in September, with the index flat at 0.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index dropped to 101.4 in September from July’s 105.1.

Economic Statistics for 19 Sep 13

Initial jobless claims rose 15,000 to 309,000 vice last week’s wildly undercounted number. The 4-week average fell 7,000 to 314,750, while continuing claims fell to a recovery low of 2.787 million.

The nation’s current account deficit for the second quarter was a higher-than-expected $-98.9 billion.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose nearly 3 points to -29.4 in the latest week.

Existing home sales were much better than expected for August, up 1.7% to a 5.480 million annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are up 13.2%.

The September Philadelphia Fed Survey rose from an already strong 9.3 to an outstanding 22.3.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators jumped a surprisingly strong 0.7% in August.

The Fed reports that M2 money supply fell by $-0.3 billion in the latest week.

The Fed’s balance sheet jumped $60.2 billion last week, with total assets of $3.722 trillion. Reserve Bank credit increased $56.4 billion.

Economic Statistics for 18 Sep 13

The MBA reports that mortgage applications rose a sharp 11.2% last week, with purchases up 3.0% and re-fis up 18.0%. As rates are starting generally to rise, last week’s 5 basis-point drop has everyone locking in the best rate they can.

A downward revision in July’s housing starts resulted in a nominal rise of 0.9% in August to a 0.891 million annual rate. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, declined to a 0.918 million annual rate from July’s 0.943 million.

At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee, the Fed surprised the markets by not tapering off its Quantitative Easing program. They fear that doing so will result in a fiscal drag on the economy. They also say that labor market conditions still are questionable. The Fed is predicting 2013 GDP growth at a below-trend 2.0% to 2.3%. The Fed also predicts a slow improvement to the unemployment rate, with it dropping below 7.0% sometime in 2014. Inflation is below the Fed’s long-term goal of 2 percent, and says downside risks to growth have eased. Chairman Bernanke indicated that increases in interest rates may not occur until the unemployment rate is substantially below 6.5 percent, which is expected in late 2014 or 2015.


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